At least two political observers have not found it surprising that Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley announced that she will run again whenever she decides to call General Elections – constitutionally due in 2027.
Mottley, leading the Barbados Labour Party, won the 2018 election in which the entire Democratic Labour Party (DLP) slate was ousted from office and three-and-half years later in January 2022 when she called elections repeated the 30-0 result.
The Prime Minister had said on more than one occasion that she would only assume that role for two terms and had repeated it in the lead up to the 2022 General Election. However, on Saturday night during a rally celebrating Wednesday’s win of the St James North seat by Chad Blackman, Mottley revealed her intention to lead the BLP into the next General Election.
Political scientists Peter Wickham and Devaron Bruce are not surprised by the revelation with Wickham stating that Mottley could run again and still make an early exit from elective politics while Bruce reasoned that without a clear successor she would be staying put.
Wickham stated: “If you look back at Prime Minister Mottley’s comments on this issue it has been very clear she wants to leave ahead of time, she does not want to die in office and she felt she had a limited time.
“I don’t ever recall her saying two terms but I do recall her saying she plans to make an early exit, whatever that means. The commitment that she is running again is not surprising.”
He suggested that Barbadians read between the lines which indicated that Mottley regarded herself as still a major asset to the BLP and would be abandoning the members to an undetermined fate if she were to leave at this point.
“My sense is that she also has been doing a lot in term of succession planning and the feeling is that the core of MPs that she has – and the ones that are coming in – she believes that there’s ample opportunity to select an alternative. I don’t believe that this means she has the intentions of remaining in politics until she draws her last breath. I still feel she has every intention to move on but perhaps not yet.”
Courting multiple audiences
On the other hand, Bruce said although Mottley had stated her intentions in relation to the two terms “she was simply courting multiple audiences given the speculation about her elevation elsewhere”.
He pointed out that when one reflects on the level of intimate engagement Mottley has continued to have at the domestic level and how intentional one has to be to transition into the international space, there was not a clear successor.
“It was pretty clear Prime Minister Mottley was staying put, at least for now. What it means is that the status quo will remain as it has been for the last seven years.”
Both Wickham and Bruce said the decision did not bode well for the DLP.
“That she is running in the next election must make Ralph Thorne sit very uncomfortably. If the next election is a match between Thorne and Mottley, again the outcome is more or less a foregone conclusion,” stated Wickham.
He further opined that there must be a fear in DLP circles that she would come up against him and the just concluded St James North by-election demonstrated that there is a polar opposite when it came to leadership appeal.
“That might be sending shivers up the spines of the Dems. I believe her announcement was intended to add anxiety to the DLP circles,” Wickham said.
She had already beaten former Prime Minister Freundel Stuart, DLP leader Verla DePeiza and the question is whether she will deal as harshly with Thorne, Wickham observed.
Bruce said the DLP had to contend with the most successful electoral leader in Mottley, having swept the polls twice, and not looking forward to the prospect of facing her.
“I would assume they are not looking forward to that, considering the Prime Minister has been able to maintain political support and her presence therefore leaves no real political opening for the DLP,” he said. (AC)
