An estimated $2.3 billion will be spent on the purchase of cars over a 20-year period ending in 2040 as Barbados accelerates the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).
This includes the expected annual importation of 10 000 four-wheel passenger cars between 2020 and 2035 alone.
The projection is that EVs will outnumber fuel-powered cars by 2035, with “complete saturation” anticipated by 2040. Trucks, buses and motorcycles are also factored into the shift to EVs.
This is outlined in the Barbados Energy Transition And Investment Plan published by the Ministry of Energy and Business in partnership with the international entity Sustainable Energy for All.
The transport sector is key to Barbados’ goal to achieve net zero carbon emissions – balancing the amount emitted with the amount removed – by 2035.
It is estimated that this sector accounted for 328 kilotonnes (kt) of carbon emissions in 2020, equal to 28 per cent of Barbados’ overall emissions in the same year. This figure is projected to decrease to nine kt of carbon by 2035 under Barbados’ the Net Zero 2025 plan.
The Barbados Energy Transition And Investment Plan forecasts that the demand for passenger car ownership in Barbados “is expected to follow a similar trend of vehicle ownership to other countries in a similar economic range, particularly considering the population’s heavy reliance on private transport”.
“Within a net-zero policy framework, along with the necessary consumer incentives and charging infrastructure, EVs are expected to replace fossil fuel-based cars entirely by 2040, with the passenger vehicle ownership per capita expected to be 0.11 in 2040,” the plan details.
“A nine per cent increase in the number of vehicles on the road by 2040 is projected.
An average number of 10 000 four-wheel passenger cars are expected to be imported annually between 2020 and 2035.
“The number of motorcycles, light trucks, heavy trucks, and buses is also expected to increase in the next decade, but demand for these is lower than that for cars. Further, it is not expected that there will be any major modal shifts in transport demand by vehicle mode in the next decade.
Encourage shift
“However, given that transport is a major source of emissions, a strategy to encourage a shift away from private vehicles to public transport is important for a net-zero policy to be successful.”
The plan said that a net-zero transition in the transport sector “requires electrifying vehicle fleets and moving away from internal combustion engines (ICE) that operate on fossil fuels”.
“Specifically, passenger cars produce the bulk of total emissions at around 60 per cent each year,” it noted.
“The total road transport sector could decarbonise at a steady pace, mainly through vehicle electrification and biofuel, along with support from hydrogen and ammonia.” These fuels are projected to replace 93 per cent of oil-based transport in 2035, reaching 100 per cent in 2040.
Further, total fuel transport demand “is expected to decrease due to a declining population and the rise of efficient electric and hydrogen vehicles”.
The investment plan said that transitioning the car fleet to EVs will dominate the transport investment profile.
Specifically, between 2020 and 2040, approximately $2.3 billion will be spent on the purchase of cars.
“During this period average annual capital expenditure on cars will comprise around 68 per cent of the total annual investments in the transport sector,” it predicted.
“Buses and heavy trucks require the second and third largest share of annual capital investments averaging around 15 per cent and 12 per cent, respectively, annually between 2020 and 2040. This is primarily driven by the electrification transport.”
The report said that to scale-up of EVs, major investment needed in charging infrastructure reinforcements.
“The government is expected key role in planning and infrastructure rollout, while an enabling environment investment through fiscal streamlined permitting partnerships,” it explained.
Manufacturing capacity
“Investment will also local manufacturing and for EVs and their components, opportunities for industrial and job creation.
Regarding cars, the plan “the transport mix is currently by ICE cars, primarily due cost premium associated limited availability, particularly Barbados’ significant used It added, however, that by 2030 when new and/or cost competitive and readily local market”.
The plan continued: “Within policy framework, EVs are outnumber fuel-powered complete saturation anticipated “The introduction of flexible (flex cars) utilising biofuels the transport sector in 2035.”
A major assumption of car dominance ten years “battery cost reductions in the international automobile that second-hand EVs will with ICE vehicles by 2030, availability is limited”.
“A shift from used vehicles would be needed to accelerate to EVs,” the plan stated.
It also pointed out that electrification of public to enable this massive
investment will be infrastructure and grid expected to play a and coordinating this while also creating environment for privatesector fiscal incentives, and public-private explained.
capacity
be needed to develop and assembly capacity components, creating new industrial diversification plan observed that currently dominated due to the prevailing associated with EVs and their particularly within used vehicle market”. that “a shift is expected or used EVs become readily accessible in the Within a net-zero are projected to powered cars by 2035, with anticipated by 2040. flexible fuel cars biofuels could decarbonise 2035.” of the predicted EV years from now is that drive a shift to EVs automobile market and will be cost competitive 2030, although market vehicles in the market accelerate the transition stated. that “biofuel-operated cars will need to enter the market for Barbados to achieve NZE by 2035”.
“Furthermore, EV battery recycling needs to be considered to ensure the sustainability of the transition. This assumption considers the used vehicle market due to the current high reliance on used vehicles as per stakeholder feedback and consumer behaviour that is highly sensitive to upfront costs,” said the report.
“However, a used vehicle fleet may not be a cost-optimal solution and awareness regarding the lifetime costs of vehicles should be promoted for an effective and accelerated transition.
Other categories of vehicles are also estimated to grow in the 20 year period between 2020 and 2040, including light trucks.
The Barbados Energy Transition And Investment Plan says: “Barbados’ fleet of light trucks is expected to grow around eight per cent from 2020 to 2040 as rising incomes drive a greater volume of freight. Conventional oil-based trucks dominate up until 2025 as the global market for low-carbon trucks remains small and carries a significant cost premium.
“The deployment of hydrogen trucks begins in 2035, supplying 33 per cent of the mix, and then dominating with 67 per cent in 2040. Penetration of flex light trucks is then needed by 2035 to decarbonise the transport sector.
“An underlying assumption is that low-carbon light trucks continue to carry a significant cost premium and strong policy support will be needed to deliver them at the scale needed.
“Equally, electric light trucks are expected to play a key role with the falling costs of EVs and battery technology for longer drives becoming more affordable and available,” it added.
Heavy trucks are projected to grow by about six per cent from 2020 to 2040 as rising incomes drive a greater volume of freight.
“Conventional liquid fuel trucks dominate up until 2025 as the global market for low-carbon trucks remains small and the vehicles carry a significant cost premium.
“By 2030, 55 per cent of the fleet is expected to be electric, a figure that increases to 89 per cent in 2035. By 2040, the heavy truck fleet is expected to be fully electric. There is no penetration of hydrogen vehicles,” according to the plan.
Main fuel source
With the Transport Board already having a sizeable fleet of electric buses, the report forecasts that “electricity becomes the main fuel source for the Barbados bus fleet by 2035”.
“Fossil fuel buses continue to dominate until 2025, before low-carbon buses begin to play a role. During this period, there is no penetration of hydrogen buses. An underlying assumption is that the rise in demand for buses does not outpace the transition to electricity,” it outlined.
“The declining upfront investment cost of electric buses and the fact that electricity prices will be lower than fossil-fuels are factors to be considered when striving towards achieving net zero emissions.
“Most of Barbados’ buses are used for public transportation, and the incentive and charging infrastructure needs to be optimised and well-structured to benefit from lifecycle cost and emission reduction and ensure maximum utilisation of the fleet.
On motorcycles, the plan projected “a rapid shift to e-motorcycles . . . between 2030 and 2035. By 2035, e-motorcycles take up to 70 per cent of the stock mix and by 2040, the fleet will be completely electrified”. (SC)
