Barbados is confronting a deepening demographic crisis marked by falling birth rates, an ageing population and looming labour shortages.
Senior officials gave that warning yesterday as Government opened a two-day workshop aimed at developing an implementation plan for the Barbados Population Policy 2023-2040.
Speaking during the opening ceremony of the Capacity Building Workshop for the Development of an Implementation Plan for the Barbados Population Policy 2023-2040 at the Lloyd Erskine Sandiford Centre, Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development, Jennifer Hunte, revealed that Barbados has recorded a steady decline in birth and fertility rates for more than six decades.
“The main findings of this 2021 report indicate Barbados has had a consistent decrease in birth and fertility rates since 1960. The fertility rate has been below replacement rate since 1980. Most CARICOM countries are facing similar declines in birth and fertility rates,” Hunte said.
She explained that findings from the Population Situational Analysis Report painted a troubling picture for the island’s long-term economic and social sustainability.
“Barbados has one of the lowest population growth rates at 24 per cent in CARICOM between 1960 and 2018. In 2018, Barbados had the highest population density of the CARICOM member states. Migration via the CARICOM Single Market and Economy has not significantly increased the population of working age,” she said.
Hunte warned that the country’s ageing population was expected to place severe pressure on health care systems, social services and the labour force over the coming decades.
“Over the next 30 years, the dependency ratio will grow to nearly two dependents per person of working age with a higher presence of elderly dependents by 2050. Care of the elderly currently accounts for just under 20 per cent of total health expenditure and is expected to nearly double in demand for financing,” she noted.
Hunte added that the report projected “an eventual decline in those of working age and rate of labour force participation, workforce shortages as retirees outnumber new entrants to the workforce, decline in savings rates as older persons draw down on their assets to support themselves, decline in productivity and innovation and increased burden of care not only for family members, but also for the state through social security and social protection programmes.”
She said projections previously suggested Barbados’ population would peak at approximately 290 000 people between 2029 and 2030 before declining, but the 2021 Population and Housing Census showed contraction had already begun with an estimated 269 090 people.
She explained that Government subsequently introduced the Barbados Population Policy 2023-2040 to provide a framework to address the country’s demographic challenges in a coordinated way.
She said the workshop, held in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund, was aimed at turning policy into action.
“This workshop is a critical step in converting policy into action and ensuring it integrates with other policies and programmes of Government. It is our hope that through collaboration and consultation with our partners, by the end of the next two days, we are able to move towards execution with a realistic and actionable implementation plan,” she stressed.
Director of the Sub-Regional Office for the Caribbean at the United Nations Population Fund, Harold Robinson, commended Barbados for taking proactive steps to confront demographic changes affecting the region.
“Population trends are not simply demographic matters, they are key development drivers. Who we are as a population, how many we are, where we live, how we age, how families evolve and how people move across borders, all of these shape a country’s future trajectory,” Robinson said.
He said declining fertility rates, population ageing, changing dependency structures and labour force pressures were already reshaping Barbados’ social and economic landscape.
“These trends are not unique to Barbados. Many countries across the Caribbean are facing similar transitions. However, Barbados is among the leaders in the region in asking the critical question how do we prepare today for the demographic realities of tomorrow?” he said.
Robinson stressed that demographic resilience required countries to anticipate and adapt to changing population patterns.
“Demographic trends are not destiny. With strategic investments and evidence-informed planning, countries can shape outcomes and create opportunities. A shrinking labour force can be addressed through investments in skills and managed migration. Population ageing can stimulate innovation in the care economy. Family well-being policies can strengthen resilience across generations,” he said.
He added that the workshop was intended to create a practical roadmap for implementation.
“This workshop is not simply about creating another planning document. It is about translating evidence into action. It is about moving from diagnosis to delivery,” Robinson said. ( TRY)
