Barbadians are being told to prepare as the country remains under drought warnings until the end of next month.
Despite the official start of the wet season on June 1, there are concerns over declining groundwater reserves, pressure on aquifers, agricultural production and the country’s overall water security.
Meteorological assistant at the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS), Keoni Williams, said Barbados has already “entered the wet season at a deficit”.
“The precipitation outlook indicates below-normal to normal rainfall accumulations in the wet season, which raise serious concern on the current drought situation and the rainy season for 2026 which can compound the 2027 dry season.”
The BMS has therefore issued agricultural and hydrological drought warnings until the end of July, followed by drought watches through to October.
“There is the high possibility that this could put strain on the freshwater and agricultural sectors this wet season,” Williams warned.
The outlook is especially concerning as the country depends almost entirely on groundwater stored in underground aquifers for its potable water supply. Hydrological drought occurs when those groundwater reserves decline and fail to recharge at the rate needed to sustain demand.
While many may point to recent showers and tropical waves as evidence that conditions are improving, meteorologists say drought is not measured by a few rainy days.
“Near-average rainfall does not equate to high precipitation accumulations and no drought,” Williams explained, adding that the 30-year average rainfall for May was only 74.1 millimetres, compared with 162.6 millimetres in September, one of the island’s wettest months.
“Scoring close to near-average rainfall in May still contributes to drought,” he stated.
Adding to the concern is the growing likelihood of El Niño – a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
“El Niño events typically promote sinking air over the Caribbean, which suppresses cloud development and rainfall. Therefore, from a qualitative perspective, the El Niño phase in the Pacific is likely a major contributing factor to the drier conditions currently being experienced in Barbados.
“For clarity, the Barbados Meteorological Services is not suggesting that the entire wet season will be characterised by drought. Rather, we are projecting a wet season that includes periods of dryness or dry spells between intense and sporadic rainfall events,” Williams told the DAILY NATION.
He said that distinction was critical because heavy rainfall does not necessarily translate into replenished aquifers.
“Good water capture requires slow, steady rainfall that allows water to percolate into our soil and wells and be captured in our aquifers. Hence, intense rainfall events do not fully justify the lifting of drought warnings or watches.”
The warning comes as Barbados enters what forecasters expect to be another active Atlantic hurricane season. While tropical waves have already begun affecting the island every two to three days, the BMS said residents should not assume that the hurricane season automatically means an end to drought.
“The public should take note and prepare not only for intense rainfall and hurricane-related weather during the wet season, but also for the likelihood of dry spells and heat events occurring within it. In previous years, during periods of heat events, our local health officials indicated that prolonged heat and humidity can pose significant public health risks, including heat stress, heat exhaustion and heat stroke,” Williams said.
“These conditions can also increase the risk of dehydration, reduce cognitive function and concentration, and elevate health risks at night when temperatures remain high and the body is unable to adequately recover from daytime heat. These forecasts are issued with high confidence, based on sound meteorological and climatological analysis.”
Barbados last imposed a nationwide water prohibition in 2023, restricting the use of potable water for activities such as watering gardens, filling swimming pools and washing vehicles as drought conditions and reduced groundwater levels threatened supplies. The restrictions were later extended through August before being lifted following improvements in groundwater recovery and rainfall outlooks.
It also imposed significant droughtrelated water restrictions in 2016 during a severe regional drought linked to El Niño conditions.
No new water prohibition has been announced. Officials said: “BMS collaborates with the Barbados Water Authority (BWA) on our national inter-seasonal rainfall forecasts, with the intention that it adds value to any decisions that the BWA could/would make, which in their expert opinion needs to be made when it comes to a prohibition or any other measures.” (NS)
