UNITED STATES’ Barack Obama is almost half-way through his presidency and the enthusiasm and hope engendered by his presence at the White House are quickly evaporating, and his re-election at this point is doubtful for many reasons.
Members of his own majority party in Congress are abandoning him, so much so that he cannot get their support in passing critical pieces of legislation.
In addition, Obama’s political fortunes suffered a devastating blow during last month’s election.
Since then he has had to give ground in every area of policy, both domestic and international, to secure cooperation from American politicians who have raised their price for cooperation with him, as seen in the recent extension of tax cuts.
Brushing aside Democratic opposition, President Obama announced an agreement with Republicans Monday night on a plan to extend expiring income tax cuts for all Americans, renew jobless benefits for the long-term unemployed and grant a one-year reduction in Social Security taxes.
Seen as capitulation, the agreement reportedly also includes tax breaks for businesses which the president repeatedly said would slow down the economy’s recovery from the worst recession in eight decades.
Mr Obama’s deal with the Republicans to extend all the Bush-era income tax cuts is widely seen as a victory for the Republicans and their strategy of obstructionism. Conversely, it is a stunning retreat by the White House.
It is not a good sign of resolve. Despite a number of key successes during his two year-tenure, there is still some lingering doubt that Mr Obama is a strong and decisive leader, and there are many who won’t bank on his ability to deliver on his objectives and promises made on assumption of office.
Some political analysts say this doubt is eroding global stability and undermining trust that allies have in American leadership and increasing the appetite of United States foes like North Korea and Iran to shake the constraints on them and move the boundaries on their actions.
On the trade front, America suffered some jitters with the US/Korea Free Trade Agreement which was finally signed last weekend. However, China is securing its Asian influence by developing North Korea as “China’s Israel”.
Iran, on the other hand, seems to believe the United States is militarily overextended in Afghanistan and has fanned its ambitions of becoming a “regional hegemony” in the Middle East by stepping up its nuclear programme.
By its own actions with respect to its nuclear ambitions, Iran clearly does not believe the United States and its allies, particularly Israel, have the military or economic stomach to engage in a serious conflict at this time.
There is no doubt the United States’ global position appears weaker under President Obama, with countries like North Korea willing to test its resolve. With re-election in mind, we wouldn’t rule out a dramatic aggressive posture in American foreign policy in the coming months.