Like most Barbadians watching the state of this country’s economy and already feeling the pinch in what is usually one of the hardest months of the year, I was delighted to read and hear media reports on Wednesday that some two per cent growth was predicted in the economy for 2011.
Knowing that a Press conference by Barbados Central Bank Governor Dr DeLisle Worrell usually follows such announcements a day later, I made my way merrily to meetings in St John with renewed hope, having been buffeted recently by gloomy forecasts from international agencies and the widely touted view that Barbados’ economy was taking far longer to recover from this global recession than other formerly weaker economies.
But, having not got the full gist of the Governor’s Wednesday Press conference, my hope was dented somewhat Wednesday night when former Prime Minister and current Opposition Leader Owen Arthur broke down some of the figures relating to unemployment and sectoral growth and declines.
The progression of the current account deficit was so disturbing that I began to wonder how could growth, as much as two per cent, come out of a situation where – unless there was a miracle – either further borrowing was needed, or foreign visitors would hit the shores of Barbados like a biblical flood.
Arthur said that after surpluses of $240 million and $116 million in the economy in 2006 and 2007 – the years of plenty – there began a current account deficit, coinciding with the recession, of $122 million in 2008 and $450 million in 2009; and Government now has to borrow some $350 million to help cover a $538 million deficit in order to pay the country’s bills – salaries and other necessities.
I didn’t want to swallow these figures at first, but the following day I was able to glean from reports that Governor Worrell had informed the media that Barbados’ economy “must grow substantially” in the first quarter of this year in order to achieve the same two per cent overall growth which he was reported to have predicted. Was Dr Worrell just as uncertain as most Barbadians were?
He went on to explain that many industries “depend on the receipts that we get in the first quarter to tide them over some of the troughs” due later in the year; and therefore Barbados’ economic growth would have to depend heavily on tourism.
Imagine I, a non-economist for sure, had been buoyed by the hope of a two per cent growth prediction just two days before; and now here was the Central Bank Governor clearly expressing mere hope as well, and not predicting.
Dr Worrell, whose pronouncements would have been based on solid numbers and trends, should have told Barbadians from day one that growth was dependent on the sectors which he later mentioned – tourism and the international business and financial services – which, as he explained, accounts for about 80 to 85 per cent of Barbados’ foreign exchange earnings.
What he was saying, apparently, was that Barbados needed to achieve high objectives in those key sectors in order to achieve an overall two per cent growth in the economy.
Faith is a great thing, and I commend the Governor for it; but it is the substance of things unseen not clear figures which show weak spillovers from the foreign exchange-earning sectors, a widening of the current account deficit by 1.8 per cent, a high import bill especially with food, beverages and vehicles, and rising inflation.
Furthermore, Dr Worrell mentioned a number of projects in the non-trade sector which are likely to stimulate private sector capital inflows; but while I’m hoping that they all take off, only the Four Seasons restart is looking certain at this time So I’m back to crossing my fingers, as much
as I was when a noted seismologist recently mentioned the possibility of an earthquake hitting this region in this century.
None of the two is an exact science, I suppose – economics and seismology – and I can only hope that tectonic plates don’t shift and, by the same token, that nothing will keep away the tourists, especially the British, who are feeling the massive recessionary effects even more than we are in the Caribbean.
The rest is up to the Almighty, as the Governor implied.
Meanwhile, as the St John by-election battle heats up, or winds down, I must commend former Opposition Leader Mia Mottley for the maturity she has brought to the fore. She has lived up to a cornerstone of decency that demands that one shouldn’t strike a man when he’s down.
The Barbados Labour Party, as I and a number of commentators have mentioned recently, is not at its finest moment, and all it would have taken to give fodder to the ruling party and cause even more voters to wag their heads in wry amusement was for Mottley to stay away from the meetings.
She could have derailed the BLP’s boat in St John by mere silence.
But this is not the time to be bitter or vengeful.
In fact, at this time Mottley has viewed the BLP as a greater entity than herself and has also seen a chance via this by-election to address some of the burning issues of the day.
It is also a prime opportunity for her to teach, mentor or in some way help fellow candidate Hudson Griffith, who has much less political experience.
We often get emotional when things are current, but clearly Mia has moved on and is proving herself to be the “bigger”, and eventually stronger, person by burying the hatchet.
