EGYPT’S President Hosni Mubarak’s days seem numbered, given the army’s undertaking that it would not use force against the people.
Even if he is able to survive the current countrywide rage, it is doubtful that things will remain the same for him and for Egypt, and perhaps the wider Middle East.
The dissolution of the cabinet in order to mitigate the damage has done little to calm violent protesters. They are expressing their anger not just against President Mubarak; they seem to reject the political system in its entirety. The question now being asked is whether the uprising in Tunisia sparked a new democratic wave that will conquer Egypt and eventually sweep away the authoritarian “Arab exception”.
The most terrifying aspect of the popular revolt is the absence of a leader. Mohammad El Baradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is not seen as the man who could lead what is a spontaneous outburst of the people’s anger, triggered by former President Ben Ali’s flight from Tunisia.
After southern Europe in the 1970s, Latin America in the late 1980s, and central and eastern Europe in the 1990s, it seems that now it is the Mediterranean region’s turn. For Europe, democratisation immediately to its south is a vital interest.
The surge of anger and revolt in Egypt, whatever its final outcome, could signal the beginning of the end for authoritarian nationalist Arab regimes. In contrast to Tunisia, the military is a pillar of the Egyptian regime. It now seems unlikely that its huge army will engage in any violent repression – unprecedented in that country. Egypt’s foreign allies are either nervously watching the situation with fingers crossed or have already tilted to the people’s side.
Even though President Barack Obama walked a tightrope, the implications of his speech after the uprising must have been disconcerting for the Egyptian president. While Mr Obama urged Mr Mubarak to deliver on his promises, and appealed to the crowds to express themselves peacefully, he also made it clear that “violence will not address the grievances of the Egyptian people” and urged him to fulfil promised reform.Though there are concerns about Egypt’s future foreign policy, especially toward Israel and their bilateral peace treaty, a definite end to the Gaza blockade and a shift in attitude towards Hamas and possible Palestinian unity would be expected.
Luckily, the Internet has reduced the planet into one large room where everyone can see and be seen. Mobile phones, social networks like Twitter, Facebook are being used to organize and outsmart authorities and inform the world during the riots in Iran, Egypt, Kenya, Tunisia and Ivory Coast. Unwittingly, rogue states have finally found an enemy in technology which they can neither censor or jail.
There is no easy way now to contain genuine dissent or legitimate criticism of abuses of human rights and misuse of power.