The United States is frantically struggling to formulate a consistent response to developments in the Middle East and the Arab world, otherwise called the Arab Spring, as that region seems to be moving imperceptibly away from American influence.
The fear is that as American influence gradually recedes, future United States administrations will find themselves less capable of achieving their objectives in this vital region of the world, notwithstanding military superiority.
Both allies and adversaries in the region are growing brazenly indifferent to America’s concerns. And as the Middle East’s shifts become more pronounced, the United States will find it more difficult to pursue security concerns such as disarming Iran or restarting the Arab-Israeli peace process.
A cursory look at the region would suffice. Washington doesn’t seem to have any leverage to prevent Syria from brutalising its citizens or persuading Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions. Saudi Arabia is likely to pursue its own nuclear arsenal in the near future for its own security.
All this is not to suggest that new democracies will rupture relations with the United States, but that in certain important respects their policies could challenge American ideological perspectives. However, to be fair this trend predated the Barack Obama administration.
On the surface, there is nothing particularly novel about Iranian or Syrian hostility to the United States. The Syrian regime has always been more ambivalent, but past pledges of moderation made to successive American administrations have somehow never materialized.
In Syria, President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal repression of citizens has simply put him beyond the pale. Should he manage to survive, the so-called “Syria option” where Israel and Syria trade land for peace is all but dead in the water.
Today, Riyadh and Washington see the region in very different terms. The Arab Spring has generated hopes for responsive democratic governance in the Middle East, but is seen in monarchies like Saudi Arabia as an existential threat to their survival.
As Saudi Arabia rethinks its security, it may conclude that it has to assess its American alliance and align itself with other conservative Arab monarchies, or an emerging power like China which favours non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs.
The Palestinian Authority’s decision to seek statehood at the United Nations has drawn much consternation in Washington.
All across the region, public opinion is averse to continued American presence and constitutes a major foreign policy challenge for the United States. It is unlikely that politicians seeking votes will defy such nationalistic sentiments.