Currently we have 1) a Prime Minister who tinkers with his ineffectual Cabinet and then jets off on a tour of China; 2) a bright, young but inexperienced Minister of Finance, 3) a seasoned veteran who has a proven track record in economic management but who can only cry in the wilderness, and 4) an economy whose debt is now virtually predicted to be worthless in less than two years’ time.
We are facing the abyss. Do not look to the hills. It is right in front of us.
What the country needs right now is a Government of national economic unity in which the Leader of the Opposition is invited to head the Ministry of Finance, supported by the current Minister who would be his deputy (I can tell you they would get along famously); and for the current Prime Minister to go back to China and stay there until the economy is prospering again.
Never have I seen Barbados in the position in which it finds itself today, with mismatched human resources of such epic proportions facing an economy in a worsening crisis of similar size.
On top of that, we have a Central Bank which somehow sees only the bright side of everything. I mean, no matter what downgrade is visited upon us, the bank comes out with a release saying, “You know, it really isn’t so bad.”
Why is the Central Bank of Barbados seemingly so intent on painting the economy in such a bright posture? Is that the role of the Central Bank, to always look on the bright side? Or is it also to help people prepare for the potential downside?
Back to what is and what never will be: Instead of mismatched resources, if we were able to overcome the political infighting and produce an administration of national unity with Arthur in the financial leadership position, then we might have a fighting chance of coming out of this mess without even more serious long-term problems than we will already have.
I will pause here for the political abuse. (Pause). Okay, you’ve had your say and it has run right off my back. Because I don’t have a pony in this race. No axe to grind. I like Sinckler as much as I like Arthur or anyone else in the political sphere and I support all of them to the same degree (zero).
It is clear that Mr Sinckler’s measures last November not only sucked, but sucked out what little wind was left in the sails of the middle class to help turn the great windmill of the economy.
This is not Republican trickle-down economics, nor is it a call for no new taxes at any time. It is simply that a great deal of our economy works at the informal level, with people who have discretionary income buying a little more in the supermarket, paying a little more for carpenters, joiners, landscapers and other workmen to assist in their businesses or at home; purchasing a new vehicle or taking on a new mortgage. The removal of allowances put a dent in their pocketbooks, as did the incessant energy increases and the rise in VAT.
Meanwhile, the lower economic order is finding itself increasingly cut off from cash flow as day work and casual labour also dries up along with full-time employment.
And while there is no doubt that the source of the problem is overseas, with sluggish recovery on both sides of the pond, it is clear to me that we could have managed better with what we had if there had been an administration in place that projected some sort of cohesive economic direction.
But apart from Mr Sinckler’s efforts, undermined unfortunately by his team’s lack of economic depth and his own inexperience, the rest of the administration has sputtered about, making mistake after mistake even when some of what its ministers were attempting was laudable, like trying to hold down costs in health care or fix the roads.
Last year, Mr Stuart’s statesman-like approach to governance helped the nation to transition through the shock, grief and pain of losing a leader while in office. His kindly calm in the emotional storm did not go unnoticed by this column and praise was given where it was felt to be due.
Over the past few months, however, that approach has seemed out of sync with the pressing needs of an economy and budgetary crisis with which the Prime Minister has yet to come to grips, far less show mastery: there is no overall economic plan besides waiting for the storm to pass, for the tide and our ships to come in.
That is not a plan; it is a schedule, and nothing in the global economy has worked on schedule in the past four years.
It is long past time for Freundel Stuart and his party to realise that he is not the man for the times, that he is more of a Neville Chamberlain type – dignified but unsuited to facing down the economic hostilities stalking us and threatening to pounce.
Or will we have to await our coming junk bond status to finally realize this?