When the wave of Caribbean elections between 2006 and 2008 saw the overthrow of a significant number of incumbent governments which had been in office for two or three terms, one of the explanations advanced in this column was that the Caribbean electorate was engaging in a process of change for its own sake.
Part of this explanation resided in the fact that many of the governments overthrown had done reasonably well in growing their economies and in structurally shifting out of post-colonial agricultural dependency into financial, tourism and other services.
In addition, many of these elections were relatively close with large sections of the populations willing to show continued support for the defeated parties, an indication perhaps, that the incumbents’ failures had not been monumental and “unforgivable”.
Further, it was significant that tried and tested leaders were being replaced by “unknown quantities”, with the case of St Lucia being the most glaring of such instances. Indeed, following many of these elections, the explanation from the voters themselves was not economic difficulty, but revolved around statements like “arrogance”, “accountability” and “time for change”.
This explanation of the 2006-2008 elections as change for its own sake, however, has not gone unchallenged. In response, I have simply indicated that we should wait to see what happens in the “second cycle” of elections, 2011-2013. We are here now.
Had those governments which won between 2006 and 2008 succeeded in being more than one-term governments, and eclipsed the previously defeated parties, then we would begin to entertain the idea that there was more to the 2006-2008 elections than Caribbean people simply willing to “try something new” following ten to 15 years of a leadership cadre.
So far, the Caribbean electorate has returned the previously defeated parties in St Lucia, Jamaica, and now The Bahamas. Only Dean Barrow, of Belize, has succeeded in avoiding the ignominy of a “one-term” Prime Minister, but he too, complained that the mandate was far smaller than he had anticipated.
When the loss of Guyana’s PPP/Civic’s parliamentary majority is considered, it is clear that the general trend since 2011 has been the rejection of sitting governments.
It is clear that a major factor explaining the impatience of the electorate is the economic crisis confronting all governments. As recent European elections confirm, parties are being punished simply for occupying office during the crisis.
All of this holds particular significance for the next two Caribbean governments whose elections are imminent: Barbados and Grenada.
Indeed, the strains of management in crisis have reflected themselves in leadership troubles in both countries. Both governments too, face formidable Opposition leaders, who have track records of economic and political stability following major crises. Most significantly, the economic crisis continues to bite, as unemployment, taxation and inflation grow.
Can Barbados and Grenada buck the trend?
