If elections had been held during the week when the most recent (September) CADRES/NATION public opinion poll was conducted the result would have been a 21 to nine victory for the Barbados Labour Party (BLP).
The ruling Democratic Labour Party (DLP) would have lost half of the 20 seats it now has in the House of Assembly along with the one it acquired when Hamilton Lashley (St Michael South East) crossed the floor.
BLP 21; DLP 9.
The new parliament would have comprised the following:
In Government: Owen Arthur (St Peter), George Payne (St Andrew), Dale Marshall (St Joseph), Anthony Wood (St Philip South), Jerome Walcott (Christ Church South), Maria Agard (Christ Church West), Gline Clarke (St George North), Cynthia Forde (St Thomas), Mia Mottley (St Michael North East), Ronald Toppin (St Michael North), Trevor Prescod (St Michael East), Joseph Atherley (St Michael West), David Gill (St Michael South Central), Santia Bradshaw (St Michael South East), Jeffrey Bostic (City of Bridgetown), Gregory Nicholls (St Michael North West), Ian Gooding-Edghill (St Michael West Central), Arthur Holder (St Michael Central), Sandra Husbands (St James South), Kerrie Symmonds (St James Central) and Edmund Hinkson (St James North).
In Opposition: Denis Kellman (St Lucy), Mara Thompson (St John), David Estwick (St Philip West), Michael Lashley (St Philip North), Denis Lowe (Christ Church East), Ronald Jones (Christ Church East Central), Stephen Lashley (Christ Church West Central), Esther Byer-Suckoo (St George South), Freundel Stuart (St Michael South).
It is clear, based solely on the statistics emerging from the public opinion poll, that the 2008 result would be completely reversed. In that election, the DLP won a 20-10 mandate. But far too many of the seats which they won were marginally attained, making them highly vulnerable to the negative swing against them of just under six per cent.
Several ministers are vulnerable to this swing, including Minister of International Business George Hutson (St James Central), Minister of Health Donville Inniss (St James South), Minister of Finance Chris Sinckler (St Michael North West), Attorney General Adriel Brathwaite (St Philip South), Minister of Tourism Richard Sealy (St Michael South Central), Minister of Transport and Works John Boyce (Christ Church South) and Minister of Social Care Steve Blackett (St Michael Central).
I can find no record of any Minister of Government losing his or her seat in the House after just one term in office. But then, we have never had a one-term Government in our history either.
What the public opinion poll is therefore saying to us is that Barbados is on the cusp of an epoch-making election. For if the CADRES/NATION poll numbers are to be believed – and it has an outstanding record of predicting results – the DLP will not only be our first one-term Government, but no fewer than seven ministers would be thrown out. In the last election lost by the BLP, nine of their ministers failed to win seats.
Let us therefore ask a few pertinent questions:
Who statistically are the more likely ministerial losers?
Are there mitigating factors around each case?
Who among them are capable of bucking the anti-DLP trend, and why?
The likely losers, based on the swing analysis of the 2008 general election results and the current swing shown in the poll, are Hutson, with a win by 2.5 per cent, Sinckler and Inniss, both by 2.9 per cent, and Brathwaite with a 3.0 per cent margin. The others, with wins by 4.3 per cent (Sealy), Boyce, by 4.8 per cent and Blackett, with a 5.6 per cent margin, stand a better statistical chance of retaining their seats.
What are the factors in each of the four most likely to lose?
I accept political analyst Peter Wickham’s argument in his December 1998 NATION article Safe Seats Revisited that in addition to looking at poll data and prevailing party swings, we should also look at the historic support level in each case, the candidate’s current performance, and if there is a change of candidate to face the incumbent.
I add another characteristic to those more scientific circumstances Wickham set out. But it is not easily quantifiable. I call it “the dynamics of demography”. Which, simply stated, although unmentionable in polite company, is the propensity of some voters in particular ridings to be influenced by political largesse on the eve of elections.
Based on all of the above, where do these four ministers stand?
Hutson’s historic support and his poll data make him clearly the weakest of the ministers under the gun. He is running against the same challenger, so few new factors impact on elector choice in this election – another disadvantage. St James Central is not a constituency on which outflows of largesse will change the dynamic, so this can be ruled out as an influence. His current performance on the national stage cannot be said to be spectacular. His single advantage may be the level of his local performance in the constituency. Increasingly, I hear reports that it has been lacklustre.
At this stage, I would therefore be inclined to call St James Central for Hutson’s opponent, Kerrie Symmonds.
Next, we come to Sinckler and Inniss both of whom won by 2.9 per cent margins. I have chosen to lump them together because they and their ridings have similar characteristics. Both St Michael North West and St James South have sufficient residents with pockets that can usefully benefit from largesse, and this will play out as the campaign is engaged.
We have historically seen evidence of it, and we must accept it could be of useful benefit to both incumbents who hold ministerial office. They both have high national profiles and get much public relations support for their every constituency initiative. They are seen to be key DLP ministers who are outspoken on national issues.
Their biggest disadvantages are their numbers. Margins of 2.9 per cent are rather weak when up against a near six per cent swing. In both cases, they are facing new opponents, putting them in favourable positions since they beat two BLP ministers with high profiles – Liz Thompson in St James South and Clyde Mascoll in St Michael North West.
• Harold Hoyte is Editor Emeritus of The Nation Publishing Company.
