FOR THE FIRST TIME in the electoral history of independent Barbados, the dominant political parties will be led into general elections by men in their sixties.
Prime Minister Freundel Stuart is 61 years old, while the Barbados Labour Party’s (BLP) Owen Arthur is 63. Therefore, no matter which side triumphs or loses, one of the major issues for each will be finding a “suitable” successor. This inevitability could result in intrigue and infighting within either party.
The two most likely contenders for leadership are Mia Mottley in the BLP and Chris Sinckler in the Democratic Labour Party (DLP). Since 2008, they have consistently been identified in public opinion polls conducted by Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES) as the “preferred prime minister”.
In last September’s poll, Arthur garnered 27 per cent of those polled (a two per cent decline from the May survey) compared with Stuart’s 11 per cent (just over the 9.9 per cent he managed in May), which represented the lowest ranking ever for a sitting Barbados Prime Minister. Mottley got the nod of 26 per cent (.5 per cent increase over May), while Sinckler received 24 per cent (up from 19.9 per cent in May).
Though both have lost ground to Stuart in this month’s CADRES poll, pollster Peter Wickham sees this as a consequence of people rallying behind the existing leader as a general election is imminent.
Mottley and Sinckler are now third and fourth respectively in the leadership ratings behind Arthur and Stuart. She has fallen to 17 per cent, while Sinckler polled 14 per cent.
Despite this drop in their standing as the “preferred leader”, both continue to be regarded as the people to lead their party should the incumbent become unavailable. In this month’s poll, Mottley was favoured by 74 per cent of those polled and Sinckler by 58 per cent.
To all intents and purposes, then, these two “young stars” have been consistently endorsed by their own supporters, their opponents and uncertain voters as the heirs apparent. This suggests the BLP and the DLP already have alternatives the public favour and therefore a transition in leadership may not need to be contentious.
Unfortunately, nothing in politics is cut and dried, especially when party leadership and the ultimate prize of prime minister is on the line.
This is where the party’s traditions weigh heavily, says Wickham. He noted: “The DLP has shown a proclivity for choosing leaders who get along with other MPs and not necessarily who is most popular.” This was seen on the death of Errol Barrow back in 1987 when the nationally popular Dr Richie Haynes (now Sir Richard) was ignored and Erskine Sandiford (now Sir Lloyd) chosen. And on David Thompson’s demise, Stuart was selected over the more popular Sinckler.
The BLP has tended to do things differently, as seen in the ascent of Bernard St John (later Sir Harold) on the death of Prime Minister “Tom” Adams. He was regarded as competent and Adam’s natural successor. Arthur’s elevation was due to that party’s determination to hold on to a competent individual who was contemplating bowing out of politics.
If not Mottley and Sinckler, who?
In the BLP, Dale Marshall is emerging as a contender, his profile enhanced by the party appointed position of Deputy Opposition Leader. In this month’s poll he is second to Mottley with 13 per cent. But Clyde Mascoll, the BLP spokesman on the economy, also polled 13 per cent, though not a candidate in the upcoming elections. A significant challenger to Mottley is therefore unclear.
For the Dems, the situation is more complex. In this month’s poll, Sinckler has Dr David Estwick (11 per cent), Denis Kellman (nine per cent), Donville Inniss (eight per cent), Ronald Jones (seven per cent) and Richard Sealy (seven per cent) on his heels.
Both Estwick and Kellman bring parliamentary seniority to the table, while Inniss has emerged as the most articulate defender of the party, with an ability to deliver an effective political sound bite when needed. He has earned an image as probably the most successful minister in Stuart’s Cabinet through his management of the problem-plagued Ministry of Health and always seems on top of each challenge. The same can’t be said for Sinckler and Estwick.
Inniss’ advancement should therefore be keenly watched, whatever the DLP’s fortunes in the upcoming poll.
• Sanka Price is a NATION editor. Email him at [email protected].
