Positive sign for global economy

From time to time, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been forced to revise its growth projections for the global economy primarily because of difficulties in effectively monitoring developments across the world, especially  in relation to the advanced  capitalist economies such  as the United States and Britain.
Even though several developing countries, led by of China and India, continue to show significant promise on the growth front,  it is still often difficult to gauge the real impact of their performances  on global growth when the more powerful economies   are underperforming.
The net result  of these developments is typically  a downward revision  of the economic growth forecasts across the globe.
After many years of little growth,  the United States’ economy is  finally beginning  to show signs  of strengthening  by recording an impressive 2.5  per cent growth  rate in the first quarter of 2013.
What is particularly interesting in this regard is that this growth performance was weaker  than projected  but reflected  a strong showing  in consumer spending.
It has long been argued that the United States’ economy is consumer driven. Over  70 per cent of the  size of this massive and wealthy economy is accounted  for by consumer spending.
Logically, therefore, by maintaining low tax rates, encouraging investment so that people can be employed, keeping  the value of the local dollar fairly steady, and holding inflation down, consumer spending can  be increased and that in turn  will lead to further growth and development of the economy.
As the evidence reveals time after time, the performance of the United States’ economy is always a benchmark for what happens  with respect to the global economy.  
In short, when the United States’ economy is in recession, global economic performance weakens. When the United States’ economy is growing, the probability of there being positive global economic growth increases. The reason for this nexus  is that the United States undertakes a wide array of economic and financial transactions involving trade and exchanges in goods, services, and investments with a wide cross-section  of countries all  over the world.  
   These transactions increase when the United States’ economy is performing well  and decline in  times of recession.
   Hence, the 2.5 per cent economic growth rate recorded in the first three months  of the current year c an only be seen as a positive sign for the global economy.
   This performance  by itself will not guarantee a full rebound of the global economy unless a positive growth trend   ­is established and maintained and other leading countries step up to the plate and also turn their economies around to allow them  to generate sustained levels of economic growth and development.
   Caribbean countries that are in urgent need of diversification particularly in relation to export markets for goods as well as services require  a booming global economy in which the wealthiest of nations are able to lead the way forward.
In the absence of such dynamics,  it is extremely difficult to imagine how we in the Caribbean will  be able to turn our present economic realities around.
It is for this reason that  the encouraging first quarter economic growth performance  of the United States’ economy  has to continue and eventually redound to the benefit of the entire global economy which we in the Caribbean depend on so dearly.