The problems of the Middle East are so deep-rooted that we doubt whether a military solution is possible or desirable. In all countries where such an approach was proffered, the results were disastrous.
Even where there were so-called street revolutions, the Arab Spring has turned into a bloody season of discontent, with remnants of the old order cracking down with ferocity in some countries while dangerous sectarian battle lines are emerging in others.
Egypt has dominated the headlines in recent times where hundreds have been killed as the military-backed interim government has come down hard on the Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters.
The Egyptian bloodbath is not the only one in the Arab world. Despite semblance of much touted democracy in Iraq, suicide bombings have become the norm, with Baghdad the hardest hit as sectarian violence has resurfaced with a vengeance.
Moreover, Lebanon is being increasingly sucked into the Syrian vortex, with the news that it has deployed thousands of its battle hardened fighters as well as new recruits to serve in some of the most bitterly contested fronts.
There is little doubt that the decision to deploy Hezbollah fighters into Syria was a strategic choice arising from cold rational logic made in consultation with its partners in Iran and Syria.
Iran and Hezbollah clearly believe Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad’s regime must survive as its downfall would represent a strategic blow to the “axis of resistance”, weakening Iran’s reach into the Arab world and potentially isolating Hezbollah.
In fact, the Syrian conflict has played a major role in destabilizing the already fragile internal situation of Lebanon and Iraq. It is evident that for now neither Lebanon nor Israel is in a hurry to rush into a war that could prove devastating for both of them.
While the Arab Spring may have been sparked by a desire for democratic change, it is coming at an incredibly bloody cost. As the events since December 2010 have shown, the path to representative democracy after decades of authoritarian rule is a bumpy one. External players have further complicated the situation.
The West, for example, continues to display its inability to comprehend the complexities of Middle East politics. For example, former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was initially supported, while the United States still appears to have a soft spot for Egypt’s generals.
The United States and its allies could not stomach ousted President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood and its ostensible victory in a relatively democratic election. Other Arab states such as Saudi Arabia have also failed to condemn the crackdown on civilians, with some defending the Egyptian government’s actions.
The Arab dream of representative governments that could deliver social, political and economic justice seems beyond reach. We can only hope that once the dust settles and the wounds start healing, the way could be paved for democracy and a lasting peace.
Already, the long awaited peace talks between Israel and Palestinian Authority have been a casualty. The temptation to inflict greater harm on the Arab people must be avoided at all costs.
