So many diverse elements need to be considered – weather, moisture content, amount of rolling, appearance of the surface, competence of the ground staff, recent history – that the preparation of a cricket pitch is hardly a precise science.
The behaviour of the 22 yards in the middle determines the course of most matches, especially ones between teams as closely matched as the West Indies and New Zealand are at present.
Even with all the gadgets of modern technology, perhaps even because of them, what the captains see at the toss is not always what they expect they’ll get.
Still, Denesh Ramdin and Brendon McCullum would have carefully studied all the visual and anecdotal evidence presented to them as they decide what to do should the coin land in their favour at the start of the third and decisive Test at Kensington Oval this morning.
This will be West Indies’ 50th Test at a venue where they have won 22, lost 10 and drawn 17.
A crucial factor is the weather.
There has been no significant rainfall in Barbados for the better part of three months; April and May were among the driest on record. Water levels at Kensington, as everywhere else, are unusually low.
The upshot is that the pitch would have needed plenty of water to counteract its parched surrounds. Even then, this is likely to evaporate faster than usual, eventually leading to a crumbling surface.
It creates a taxing conundrum; bat first in spite of the early moisture or put the opposition in to capitalise on it with the prospect of batting last on a wearing surface? The old adage about the toss remains the most sensible; think hard about the former before opting for the latter.
West Indies head coach Ottis Gibson has openly hoped for conditions that give his two impressive fast bowlers, Jerome Taylor and Kemar Roach, more encouragement than the flatbeds at Queen’s Park and Sabina.
New Zealand, no doubt, have similar thoughts.
The lively pace and swing of Tim Southee and the left-armer Trent Boult, listed Nos. 6 and 11 respectively on the ICC Test rankings, lead their attack. The left-handed Neil Wagner, strong and pacy, has been added to the strike force, replacing leg-spinner Ish Sodhi.
Kensington’s is the likeliest of the otherwise lifeless surfaces around the Caribbean to fit Gibson’s bill, yet the returns from the three previous first-class matches there this season indicate that spin could well have a significant role.
In Barbados’ two home games, Sulieman Benn had 16 of his overall tally of 37 wickets that regained him his Test place for the current series. At uncompromising Queen’s Park and Sabina, he has had to toil for 156.3 overs, 70 more than any bowler on either side, for his nine wickets; his fielders have not been kind to him.
After five days of necessary rest since Queen’s Park, he should relish a return to familiar territory for the first time in a Test since 2009 against South Africa when he had six for 81 from 46.4 overs – and incurred a one-Test suspension for an altercation with the opposition that typified a petulant match.
Gibson’s assertion that the West Indies have the momentum following their remarkable second Test comeback is irrefutable. Each of their 11 players contributed to a greater or lesser extent and there is no need to change them.
New Zealand, on the other hand, have problems at the top of the order. It is a crucial position.
In his debut series, left-hander Tim Latham has settled in to Test cricket with the composure of an old hand. His four innings have yielded 274 runs; the shortest has extended to 49.3 overs. His partners (Peter Fulton, Hamish Rutherford and, as a stopgap, McCullum himself) have eked out seven runs between them.
Wicketkeeper B.J. Watling has had a couple of defiant innings, 89 at Sabina and 66 not out stretching nearly six and a quarter hours as he and off-spinner Mark Craig frustrated the West Indies at Queen’s Park. There was 124 in his previous Test, against India in Auckland in February.
He has opened seven times in his 23 Tests; now settled at No.7, he won’t be moved. Rutherford keeps his place, constituting a left-handed opening pair.
Teams must be settled before the toss. As much as anything, it is the toss, and what decision is taken after it, that is likely to hold the key to the result.