THE HURRICANE SEASON is upon us and though this year is expected to be one of the lightest hurricane seasons on record, being unprepared does no one any good.
Whether it’s protecting your home and property or making plans for any circumstance, it’s always important to be prepared for whatever is to come.
Though this year is targeted to have few named storms, it just takes one to cause massive devastation.
The relatively quiet 2013 and 2014 seasons and the cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic Ocean just before the 2015 season have fuelled speculation we may be transitioning to the less active cycle of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) which was last in place from 1971-1994.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) outlook mentioned the debate which has surfaced as to whether we are still in this high-activity era of the 25-40 year AMO, which had been in place since 1995.
This year, however, is predicted to be below the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
NOAA, which released its forecast earlier this month, calls for a 70 per cent likelihood of:
– Six-11 named storms (including May’s Tropical Storm Ana).
– Three to six of which would become hurricanes.
– Zero to two major hurricanes – those of at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The 2014 season featured the fewest number of named storms in 17 years with a total of eight named storms. The 2010 season featured 12 hurricanes and 19 named storms, which tied 1995 for the third most named storms in any Atlantic season, at the time.
El Nino was first officially declared by NOAA as winter wound down. As of the late May forecast, El Niño, a periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific waters, has been given an 80 per cent chance of persisting the rest of 2015, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Centre.
There is a body of scientific evidence linking the occurrence of El Niño with increased wind shear in the tropical Atlantic Basin, which is one factor, along with dry air, that limits the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones.
However, exactly where the warming of the equatorial Pacific waters takes place and the magnitude of that warming plays at least a partial role in the number of Atlantic named storms.
– Warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific: lower number of Atlantic tropical cyclones.
– Warming in the central equatorial Pacific: higher number of Atlantic tropical cyclones.
Looking at the Atlantic Basin as a whole as of late March 2015, warmer sea-surface temperatures (SST) were in place in the western Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea but generally cooler-than-average SST dominated in the eastern Atlantic Ocean from the western African coast to about halfway to the Windward Islands.
All other factors – such as the amount of wind shear and dry air aloft – being equal, warmer waters offer more heat to fuel the tropical storm potential.
It is important to note, however, that a large majority of the destructive hurricanes during the record-setting 2005 hurricane season developed in the western Atlantic Basin.
“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., referring to the 1992 season in which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew – a Category 5 major hurricane.
2015 Tropical Storm Names and 2015 Hurricane Names:
Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate,
Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda.