Canadians go to the polls on September 20 after a short 35-day election campaign sprint.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called this snap election in mid-August in the hopes his Liberal party could secure a majority of seats in the House of Commons, arguing Canadians needed a say in the pandemic recovery.
It’s only been two years since the last general election in 2019 netted Trudeau a minority government.
Still, it’s been an eventful period, not least shaped by the global coronavirus pandemic and its subsequent social and economic upheavals.
Trudeau said the election was necessary because it was a “pivotal moment” for the country to choose the next steps in the pandemic recovery.
Over the summer, opinion polls also indicated his Liberals were in a good position to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons.
The last time Canadians voted federally, in October 2019, the Liberals only had a narrow election win.
Trudeau, the 49-year-old leader of the centre-left party, formed government with a minority, meaning he had to rely on opposition parties to help him pass his legislative agenda.
Soon after Trudeau’s August election call, support for the Liberals began to fall even as the fortunes of the Conservatives, the main opposition party, rose.
New Conservative leader Erin O’Toole is running in his first federal campaign at the helm of the centre-right party. He begins the race as an unknown to many Canadians, but his pitch to moderate voters helped him gain traction.
A few factors were an early drag on the Liberals’ popularity.
Canadians questioned the need for an election as the pandemic engulfed the country once more. Old political scandals also dogged Trudeau on the campaign trail.
From early September the two parties have been locked in a statistical tie for first place, each at about 30% support in national polls, indicating another minority government is likely.
That means each party’s ability to get their voters to the polls will be a crucial factor in the final results.
Polling suggests that Canada’s main federal parties are ending this short campaign in roughly the same place they did two years ago.
In that election, Trudeau’s Liberals won the most seats despite losing the popular vote to the Conservatives.
The Liberals currently have the lead in vote-rich regions like the provinces of Quebec and Ontario, giving the party a potential advantage, pollsters say. The Conservatives have the upper hand in traditional strongholds like Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh, is polling slightly higher than in 2019, making the party a potential kingmaker in the next parliament.
The People’s Party of Canada (PPC), a relatively new federal party that received only 1.6% of the vote share and no seats, last time around, has seen a surge in support.
Its populist leader, a former Conservative member of parliament, has tapped into a vain of anger over vaccine mandates and lockdowns measures. The PPC is now hovering at about 6% support.
With support spread across the country, it’s not predicted to win any seats but the PPC could siphon voters from the Conservatives.
In the campaign’s final days, both Trudeau and O’Toole warned supporters who might be flirting with the NDP or the PPC that it could split the vote in key ridings (constituencies). (BBC)
