AS I SEE THINGS: Economics in adversity

Caribbean countries are no strangers to economic adversity. And that fact has been confirmed time and time again, most recently in the aftermath of the 2008/2009 global financial and economic recession. Consequently, from the oil and resource-rich Trinidad and Tobago in the south to Jamaica in the north with all of its cultural icons and supreme athletes, governments have had to rely on creative ways to manage their economies with mixed results at best.
That said, I am highly confident that given the resolve of Caribbean people we can overcome all of the economic problems facing us at the moment. The only lingering questions that remain are: What options are we willing to contemplate in order to rid ourselves of the most pressing socioeconomic problems we currently encounter? What mechanism are we going to use to find needed solutions?
Logically, the answers to these two questions would vary from country to country as has been demonstrated in Barbados, Jamaica, and St Kitts and Nevis, among others, over the past five years and that is acceptable. But at the moment, I wish to focus specifically on recent developments in St Lucia and Antigua and Barbuda to illustrate the challenges facing those countries as they seek to manage their economies in times of adversity.
In St Lucia, the government and trade unions are clearly preparing for what could potentially become a long and bitter struggle over the options available to Government for reducing its fiscal deficit which remains a major limiting factor in the country’s ability to grow the economy. As it now stands, the unions are totally opposed to cuts in public workers’ salaries, forcing the Government to concede that all options including retrenchment and increases in taxes are now on the table. The reality is that the Government has little alternative but to try to bring its fiscal deficit down while the unions are also well within their rights to do everything possible to protect workers’ wages. But, clearly, something has to give. In the present environment, the unions should provide the Government with workable policy options that clearly indicate how the fiscal deficit can be reduced without any cuts in public workers’ salary and allow for negotiations to settle the matter once and for all. Simply opposing Government’s proposals will not cut it.
On a more positive note, the new Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda has recently announced that his Government will endeavour to get its economic fundamentals right and then seek to address some of the critical social problems facing the country, most prominent being the high unemployment among the youth which, according to the Prime Minister, stands in excess of 40 per cent.  Without doubt, the Prime Minister’s approach is the correct one since no country could resolve its social issues without a strong economic base. In the end, the Government’s approach to economic management is what ultimately will determine success or failure. 
Going forward in both Antigua and Barbuda and St. Lucia, I have little doubt that the mechanisms used to resolve their economic problems and the policy options pursued will be the key ingredients in determining whether these countries can successfully manage their economies in times of adversity.  I wish them luck.
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