LAST WEEK marked seven months since the March elections were held in Iraq, which marked the country’s second parliamentary election since the United States-led invasion that overthrew Saddam Hussein.
During this time, the country’s politicians proved unable to forge a ruling coalition, giving Iraq the dubious honour of going the longest time since the Netherlands without an effective government following a parliamentary election.
The results revealed a deeply divided country. Former Prime Minister Ayayd Allawi’s Iraqi coalition, a broad-based group that claims support from the country’s Sunni minority, was the biggest winner, with 91 seats in the 325-seat parliament.
Incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law bloc, which is predominately Shi’ite, won 89 seats. Unfortunately for him, his fellow Shi’ite clerics, in particular Muqtada al-Sadr, a powerful cleric who opposed the United States’ presence in Iraq, wanted the prime minister replaced.
Sadr recently reversed course, giving Maliki another 39 seats and opening the door to the Iraqi National Alliance, which holds another 31 seats, to forge a coalition with the prime minister. If that happens, then Maliki will be just four seats short of a majority.
It is not clear what prompted Sadr’s change of heart. He has been in self-imposed exile in Iran since 2007. Most likely he believes the move will give him more influence over the new government.
As a Shi’ite, Sadr’s views reflect that of Iran. While the United States has said it favours no particular candidate, it has made clear its discontent with Sadr, whose militia it considers responsible for targeted killings of Sunnis and has been one of the main sources of violence and instability in Iraq.
Any government in Baghdad that does not make room for Sunnis will not only provoke that minority but will also alienate Sunni-majority countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia. They too fear the spread of Iranian influence over Iraq.
The future of the United States presence in Iraq remains one issue that will bedevil the next government. Mr Sadr and his supporters want the remaining American forces out but many Iraqi politicians, including Shi’ites, see the 50 000 American troops as providing stability and security.
They worry that the planned United States withdrawal by December 2011 will lead to chaos and violence as the Iraqi forces are unable to guarantee security.
There is a need for a broad coalition in Iraq to guarantee some stability. The longer the delay increases the potential for instability. Failure could manifest itself in violence.
Breaking this vicious spiral is the Iraqi government’s most important task. It can only do that by forming a government that is representative of all parties.
