“AS ALWAYS, time and God will determine the future.” – Mia Mottley, in a prepared statement following the announcement that her posting had been revoked by the Opposition parliamentary group. October 19, 2010.
That seeming acceptance of the decision by Mia Mottley’s Barbados Labour Party (BLP) parliamentary colleagues to remove her from the leadership was subsequently belied by her adoption of somewhat of an outsider’s stance and an apparent reluctant involvement in party affairs outside of her constituency.
She was, for example, only persuaded to take to the platform in the late stages of the party’s campaign in support of its candidate in the St John by-election and, despite clamant calls for healing from those on either side of the issue, every action that appeared to emanate from her camp spoke to the opposite.
And this would be true up to and including her surprisingly publicly stated desire to contest the party chairmanship at the October annual conference, a move which, with talk of an election in the air, would go against the BLP tradition of residing the posts of political leader and chairman in a single individual during a campaign, for reasons that are obvious.
Still, as she is fond of reminding all of us, there is an old Bajan saying that “time longer than twine”.
That adage would probably have been at the forefront of her mind when she agreed to attend the recent constituency branch meeting that afforded the now famous photo opportunity of an “almost hug” with the man who displaced her, former Prime Minister and once again Leader of the Opposition Owen Arthur, in what some said was the definitive sign that the BLP’s wounds were healing and that all was well in the party again – at least in public.
For me, however, that definitive moment came last Tuesday in the House of Assembly – a stage where in recent times she had uncharacteristically reduced herself to being a bit player – when she made a remarkable appearance to lead off the Opposition’s response to debate on Government’s resolution on a proposed Human Resource Development Strategy projected to cost $583 million up to 2016.
Acceptance
A content analysis of the lengthy speech is a matter for another time, but what was remarkable was her acceptance of the assignment in the first place, and its timing, given that Arthur was reportedly not in the best of health and said to be walking with the aid of a cane.
Poignantly, it cast her final words in her carefully and cleverly crafted statement to the media after her ouster from the Leader of the Opposition post into a clearer perspective: “As always, time and God will determine the future.”
Mottley and her supporters would have recognized even before the continuing brouhaha over the apparently conflicting reports on Barbados’ international creditworthiness by two of the world’s top rating agencies that the Democratic Labour Party’s (DLP) performance on managing the economy has been less than stellar.
In fact, if the analysts are to be believed, the Barbados economy is likely to get worse in the lead-up to the general elections which are constitutionally due in about 18 months.
It presents an opportunity for a healed and united Barbados Labour Party – which it could not have paid for even if it wanted to and had the money – to capitalize on the DLP’s negative outlook and position itself to recapture the reins of office, thereby realizing the worst fears of at least one political commentator that his party of choice could be the first one-term Government in this country’s history.
As the realities of the dismal diagnoses by the two ratings agencies begin to sink into the psyche of the average Barbadian who is struggling to make ends meet in these less than optimal economic circumstances, the hand of the Barbados Labour Party must be immeasurably strengthened by the presence and reputation of Arthur at the top of its now undisputed leadership.
Tired cliché
It is becoming something of a tired cliché now to say that the country has been crying out for leadership at all levels and, with the economy seemingly set to continue its downward slide, calls for Arthur to be returned to Government are likely to increase in the coming months, especially since his record on economic management has been praised even by his detractors.
Against such a background, it becomes easier to understand and appreciate Mottley’s apparent decision to help in the healing of the rift with Arthur and fall in line behind his leadership of the Barbados Labour Party, at once in the interest of the party and for the good of the country.
There has not yet been any indication that the olive branch will stretch all the way to permitting Arthur to retake the chairmanship of the party at the October annual conference, thereby settling all the levers of power in the party into one sure pair of hands for the general election challenge that no one doubts has been launched.
The cynic suggests, however, that there is also the overarching element of self-interest in the move that places Mottley once again squarely and indisputably in the position of Arthur’s heir apparent for the leadership of the BLP before the election and almost certainly in its aftermath.
I’ve said before that the basis of decision-making in politics is self-interest and the collective self-interest of a group of politicians is determined by their access to power; it is that which allows them to govern.
Politicians do not like being in opposition – they merely tolerate it as a necessary holding pattern in their plans for accession to power.
Mottley is now going to be faced with having to undergo a crash programme in the restoration of trust with her parliamentary colleagues and their supporters in the wider collective of the BLP and she is smart enough to recognize that this is her second chance.
God and time will surely determine the future, but who knows the mind of Owen Arthur?
• Albert Brandford is an independent political correspondent.