PRIME MINISTER FREUNDEL STUART is proving himself to be a comeback kid.
The latest NATION/CADRES poll shows that he is leading the head-to-head fight against Owen Arthur in the lead-up to Thursday’s general election.
The Democratic Labour Party (DLP) itself has made a dramatic improvement in its performance in the last month, narrowing the gap with the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) to a statistically insignificant 3.4 per cent. This is also down from the six per cent lead the BLP enjoyed last September.
As a result, Thursday’s vote to choose a new Government is expected to go down to the wire.
Notwithstanding the DLP’s sharp jump in support by the public, CADRES is still predicting victory for the BLP based on swing analysis undertaken by its pollsters.
It is suggesting that despite the surge in support for the DLP, the marginal lead currently enjoyed by the BLP should be sufficient for it to produce the weakest of Governments if this trend holds.
One of the most significant things coming out of this latest national poll has been the issue of leadership, with the DLP’s leader, Stuart, recording a groundswell of support.
As a result, for the first time, he has moved ahead of BLP leader Arthur as the man preferred by most Barbadians for the post of Prime Minister, with 35.9 per cent of those polled backing him. The CADRES survey shows Arthur getting 33.0 per cent support for the job he held for 14 years.
A month ago CADRES found that Stuart had a national support level of 23 per cent to Arthur’s 39 per cent. Last September Stuart had recorded a mere 11 per cent of the popular public support, lagging behind a number of politicians, including Arthur, who at that time had an approval rating of 27 per cent.
This latest poll has also shown Stuart doing better than Arthur among voters in terms of the approval of the work either man has been doing, with the Prime Minister getting 39.1 per cent support as opposed to Arthur’s 36.6 per cent.
Stuart also ranked higher among the DLP supporters than Arthur was among those of his BLP, while Stuart’s personal rating was also ahead of the party’s for the first time.
As to whether Barbados was on the “right track”, only 34.9 per cent felt so, as opposed to 40.2 who indicated it was not.
CADRES reported that there was good response to the poll which was done last weekend in all 90 polling divisions within the 30 constituencies.
The survey was not designed to give constituency outcomes.
Pollster Peter Wickham, who heads CADRES, said it was “coming down to a pitch battle in about ten constituencies”, pointing out that there were many marginal seats at stake in Thursday’s election.
The poll found that on the issue of whether this was the time for a change of Government, it was a very close call among the committed respondents, with 38.9 per cent saying yes and 40.5 per cent no. The uncommitted, made up of those who were either unsure or won’t say, stood at 20.6 per cent of those interviewed.
Wickham said the survey showed the electorate was sending a strong signal that leadership was an issue, adding that while people still had reservations about the DLP, they were becoming more comfortable with that party’s leadership.
Overall, uncommitted voters, standing at 33 per cent, will play a big role in Thursday’s vote with the size on this occasion being the lowest historically in any CADRES poll. Wickham said that based on the CADRES swing analysis assumption, the DLP would get a larger share of the uncommitted votes but would still lose narrowly.
If, however, the uncommitted voters behave uncharacteristically this time and the BLP got a larger share, it would not only win the election but with a comfortable majority, he predicted.
