“Open your doors O Lebanon, that a fire may feed on your cedars.
Open your doors. Wail, O cypress, for the cedar has fallen. Because the glorious trees have been destroyed. Wail, O oaks of Bashan, for the impenetrable forest has come down. There is a sound of the shepherds’ wail, for their glory is ruined; there is a sound of the young lions’ roar, for the pride of the Jordan is ruined.”
– This account of God’s judgment of the people of Israel, taken from Zechariah 11: 1-3, is in the context of their deviation from His dictates.
This is indeed a time for the people of Barbados to judge those who over the past three weeks have bombarded them for the support needed to put (or keep) their hands on the levers of power.
The mighty trees, the cedars, the cypresses and the oaks of our politics must now face the fire. And somehow, I hear roaring lions. Perhaps, there shall be wailing!
Yet, I have come to the conclusion that Elections 2013 will record a painfully close finish. Barbados has never experienced a close electoral result since the establishment of single member constituencies in 1971. Ironically, it was in the election three weeks before Independence, 1966, under the outdated double member constituency system, that we saw a four-seat margin of victory by the Democratic Labour Party (DLP).
The narrowest margin of victory under the present system was in 1981 (by seven seats) when the DLP won 17 seats to the Barbados Labour Party’s (BLP) ten. In 1991, the DLP also won, this time by eight. All other margins were by ten and more seats, starting in 1976 by ten for the BLP.
This election seems to be different.
We have never seen as close an election after one term of government as this one. In 1981, after the 1976 result, the BLP maintained the size of its majority 18-10; in 1991, after its 1986 triumph, the DLP secured a comfortable eight-seat win. In 1999, the BLP massively increased its majority from 19-9 (1994) to 26-2 after that term.
Almost everyone agrees the incumbent DLP Government is not well placed to increase its seat count given the large number that were narrowly won in 2008, and the nature of the recent swing against it. Any admission of a close result (granted, by me), therefore suggests it is the first time we face the real prospect of a one-term Government.
I have no wish list for the success of individual candidates. Any projection I make today is based on the 2008 results and the prospects that the two CADRES polls (Barbados Today last month) and DAILY NATION (last week) suggest.
At the time of the January poll, it appeared to me as though the BLP was comfortably ahead of the DLP since a swing of seven per cent against the governing party threatened to wipe out most of the St Michael seats and one or two others in St James and Christ Church.
However, since the most recent poll, which is published today, suggests that the swing against the DLP has been narrowed to about three per cent, it reduces the BLP’s chances in those seats that the DLP won by margins of more than three per cent. Thus seats like St Michael South Central, St Michael West, Christ Church South, Bridgetown, St Michael Central and St Michael East all come back into contention for either party.
Additionally, the three BLP seats won by less than one per cent – St Andrew, St Joseph and St Michael North – pose interesting scenarios since the margins where the contests are keenest are those from zero per cent to six per cent, taking into account the three per cent swing against the DLP and a margin of error in the poll of plus or minus five per cent. (I conservatively calculate it rather on just a three per cent error margin).
What further creates a conundrum is the fact that I have seen numbers from individual constituency polling for both parties in parts of St Michael, St George, St Philip, St James and Christ Church that are inconsistent with what the CADRES results suggest.
In addition, all of this polling was done well before the launch of manifestoes, which have an impact on those voters who will closely study policies. With close finishes, every little thing can affect the final result. I yearn for more up-to-date poll data in order to make a firm prediction about Thursday’s outcome.
So how does one call a result in these circumstances?
As I did in 2008, I suggest the ten most certain seats for each party and the ten that fall into the toss-up column. These can be found in the chart above.
Looking at the toss-up ridings, I place St George South (Dr Esther Byer-Suckoo) and Christ Church East (Dr Denis Lowe) at the top simply because they are two bellwether ridings.
We all recall the St George South record, but since 1971, Christ Church East has always voted for the winning party. Both these seats are held by the DLP and both were won with comfortable margins of 7.9 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively.
Statistically, they should remain in that party, but we cannot ignore their undulating record.
Five St Michael seats find their place in my battleground arena: St Michael South Central (Richard Sealy), St Michael West (Michael Carrington), St Michael Central (Steve Blackett), St Michael East (Kenny Best) and Bridgetown (Patrick Todd). They were all won by the DLP by margins of four to six per cent in 2008, making them vulnerable.
Statistically, St Michael East (Best) and Bridgetown (Todd) had the best returns and the DLP would anticipate retaining them over South Central (Sealy), Central (Blackett) and West (Carrington). But more than math is at play in elections.
The Christ Church South result is never going to be by a wide margin. At 4.8 per cent last time, John Boyce would be favoured as that is fractionally over the current swing, but it is also within the six per cent range I have presumed. That 1.2 per cent difference could just determine the outcome.
The only BLP-held seat I have subjectively placed in the battleground area is St Andrew (George Payne). This riding, along with St Joseph (Dale Marshall) and St Michael North (Ronald Toppin) did so poorly last time, they should all have been placed in the uncertain column. But given Marshall’s high profile and the BLP’s St Joseph record, he escapes as does Toppin, based on his personal consistency and the BLP’s St Michael strength generally. The DLP may, however, justifiably feel all three are fair game.
Looking at the top ten in each of the parties, I would suggest that the DLP’s list easily picks itself. The inclusion of St Michael North West (Chris Sinckler) and St James South (Donville Inniss) is naturally not based on their weak numbers. Their 2008 outcomes are not impressive, holding margins of 2.9 per cent (Inniss) and 1.3 per cent (Sinckler) over their opponents.
However, their ministerial profiles make the difference in choosing them as possible DLP successes over St Michael South Central’s (Sealy) and West’s (Carrington) who have better returns, but are regarded as less dynamic candidates.
In the BLP column, all but one of the seats won in 2008 fall into its certain column. I omitted St Andrew for reasons already stated, but the BLP will feel it is a seat it can win. I regard the ridings where there are two new candidates (St Michael South East (Santia Bradshaw and Patrick Tannis), Christ Church West (Dr Maria Agard and Verla De Peiza) and St James North (Edmund Hinkson and Harry Husbands) as safely BLP although – they were won by the BLP in 2008 – the DLP may have reasonable claims to any one of them.
I particularly identify St James North’s vulnerability because of what I call the Eastmond factor (referring to outgoing MP Rawle Eastmond), whose controversial exit from politics may have softened old BLP support.
I have not contemplated those candidates who may buck the trend one way or the other, as is likely. I have not sought to speculate on any possible major upsets since they are what they are. Out of left field. Unplanned for. Unexpected. In a close election, those who score upsets and those who suffer upsets, as well as those who buck trends, may make all the difference to the final count. They just cannot be predicted.
Unaware of the impact of the manifestos or the last week of canvassing and meetings, I anticipate a result as close as 17-13 or even 16-14.
Assess our once glorious cedars, cypresses and oaks; then make your selection, people.
TOMORROW: An assessment of the latest CADRES poll.
• Harold Hoyte is Editor Emeritus of THE?NATION.