IT IS OFTEN SAID that democracy thrives in a turbulent climate. The situation in Egypt shows that it often germinates and takes root in such situations. There are many lessons to be learnt from the chaos there.
One is that United States’ influence is waning across the globe as military might is no match for “people power” – or so it seems. Whether this is a good thing or not depends on one’s perspective, but no one country has the global clout to fill the vacuum on its own. This makes room for consensus – the essence of democracy.
To some people, total confusion would be a polite way of describing official Washington’s reaction to the revolts and protests now flaring across the Arab world, as neither the United States government nor the mainstream media seem to know how to respond to developments in Tunisia and Egypt.
Unfortunately, President Barack Obama has just suffered the second successive humiliation from the Middle East. First, he demanded Israel cease building illegal settlements, and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, backed by Congress, snubbed him and kept on building.
And, after demanding that Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak resign “now”, Obama is ignored by the Egyptian strongman, who grimly hangs on to power, backed by the army and the business oligarchy.
Now that the initial shock over Egypt’s uprising has subsided, powerful special interests within the United States are preparing to throw their support behind Vice-President General Omar Suleiman or even the continuation of President Mubarak’s rule until September elections.
Exaggerated fears are now being fanned in the American Press that Egypt is about to turn into a second Iran. Behind these wild claims is the real concern that the “peace treaty” brokered by the United States between Egypt and Israel will be rejected by Egyptians, who regard it as treason and betrayal of the Palestinian cause.
It should be noted that American aid provides Egypt with US$1.5 billion worth of arms each year and the military establishments worry that a popular, democratic Egyptian government will divert military spending into social sectors. America’s powerful farm lobby also fears that tens of millions tons of wheat to Egypt, again paid for by American aid, may be jeopardized.
The real concern is that America’s most important Middle East ally may be on the way out. If Egypt’s current United States-backed and financed regime goes, America’s entire security architecture for the Middle East will be in peril.
With the decline of America’s super-influence around the globe, a diffusion of power is emerging with serious implications for global security. For the future, each country will have to defend itself against internal and external threats. Egypt however remains overly dependant on the United States, as do several other Arab nations.