THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY of the DLP’s victory is a good time to engage in a more detailed analysis of the outcome of this election, which can now be supported by preliminary data on the 2013 Election (the Electoral department is yet to release the final data).
These data present interesting perspectives that illuminate the overall result, along with constituency outcomes and People and Things will focus on some of these issues over the next two weeks.
One perspective on the national level analysis is presented in the appended chart which maps the voter turnout since 1986 along with the increase in voter turnout each election year.
Although the chart is confined to 1986-2013 (largely for editorial purposes), the range of statistics since 1966 demonstrates two distinct participation patterns separated by a sharp decline in 1991. The pre-1991 era manifested a voter turnout of 77% on average, while the era from 1991 up to the present manifests an average turnout of 62%.
The reasons for this distinct difference, along with the reasons why levels dropped significantly (-17%) in 1991 need to be explored separately.
At this time, it is important to note the average participation level since Independence (69%) and that we are now in an era where the turnout is significantly lower than it was before 1991.
Although being significantly lower, the level of participation in recent elections is really not dissimilar since the turnout only changes by two or three percentage points on each occasion. In real terms this amounts to roughly 5 000 voters which does not appear to be statistically significant, but has clearly impacted on the outcome in a real and tangible way.
It is for this reason that the percentage by which participation increased was also included, along with the average turnout since Independence for purposes of comparison.
Summarily, it can be argued that we have had what could be described as a “low” voter turnout on three occasions: 1994; 2003 and 2013 and of the three 2013 was actually the “highest”.
Moreover, the difference between a “high” and “low” turnout is effectively hinged on the participation of 5 000 voters out of a population of 250 000.
It is interesting to explore reasons why fewer persons would vote in any election and the fact that we have a commonality linking 1994; 2003 and 2013 makes such an assessment easier.
In the absence of a national definitive method, this analysis notes that in all three years the electorate seems not to have been motivated for some reason and the reasons why this was the case in 1994 is obvious.
The collapse of the DLP administration was clearly demotivating for several Barbadians who were equally not enthusiastic about the BLP option.
The extent to which this author believes that the characterisation of a “party” is very much bound up in the way that it’s “leader” is perceived, leads to the conclusion that several Barbadians were equally unenthusiastic about both David Thompson and Owen Arthur and this is perhaps because we knew little about both leaders.
In the case of Arthur our comfort level clearly grew by 1999 when the participation levels returned to “normal” and the fact that Thompson also ran (and lost) speaks volumes about the extent to which the impact of leadership on voter participation is a moving target.
It would therefore appear as though the growing popularity of Arthur brought out more voters in 1999, but by 2003 “we” started to grow tired of Arthur but were not given a satisfactory alternative by the DLP that year.
Therefore when the DLP shifted back to Thompson in 2008 “we” responded well since he had clearly gown on “us” by then and more of us voted.
The implications for the analysis of 2013 is therefore obvious and consistent with the assertion that the critical 5 000 were perhaps not happy with “either of the two candidates” for the post of PM and preferred to remain at home.
There is no way to know whether all 5 000 of these persons who effectively said “none of the above” would have supported the BLP or DLP, but the fact that DLP support fell by 3%, while BLP support grew by a similar level and 3% of our 2013 electorate was 7 000 voters speaks volumes about the potential impact of a more popular leader on either party’s fortunes.
Peter W. Wickham ([email protected]) is a political consultant and director of Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES).
