JUST AS THE WORLD was experiencing some semblance of economic recovery, that relief is likely to be jeopardized unless the growing instability in Libya is contained. Given the intransigence of President Muammar Gaddafi, a military solution now seems the only option.
Based on the tone of the United Nations Security Council, Gaddafi should see the writing on the wall. Instead of threatening to crush what he calls the “rats and mercenaries” who have revolted against his 40-year-old rule, he should exit gracefully.
Libya is now divided into two.
The eastern part of the country is in the control of opponents as two air force pilots have recently defected to Malta, many army units have mutinied, and Gaddafi’s own diplomats have either resigned or asked him to quit.
This scenario does not lend confidence to the survival of Gaddafi in power for much longer. The uprising that began last month has posed the most serious challenge, though clashes appear to have eased considerably in recent days after many foreign journalists arrived in the capital at the government’s invitation.
The two sides have dug in their heels, and the direction the uprising takes next could depend on which can hold out longer. Gaddafi controls the capital Tripoli and nearby cities, backed by his elite security forces and militiamen, who are generally better armed than the military.
His opponents – reportedly holding the east and much of Libya’s oil infrastructure – also control pockets in western Libya near Tripoli. They are backed by mutinous army units, but those forces appear to have limited supplies of ammunition and weapons and have not yet, it would seem, merged into any unified fighting force.
They have moved swiftly to consolidate their hold in the east, centred on Benghazi – Libya’s second largest city – where the uprising began, though plagued by ammunition shortages.
Politicians there on Sunday set up their first leadership council to manage day-to-day affairs, taking a step toward forming what could be an alternative to Gaddafi’s regime.
These kinds of fissures in the government apparatus and state structure were not to be evident in Tunisia and Egypt, where Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak from early seemed to be on the defensive and responding to the people’s demands.
To that extent, it might be more difficult to oust Gaddafi.
Though Gaddafi has passed on the benefits of his oil-rich economy to the people, he has paid more attention to his power base in the western region than the east and has provided the basis for divisions within Libya.
Libya is under tremendous international pressure, with allegation of major powers wanting its oil. Instead of conceding ground and promising reform, Gaddafi’s recent call to his supporters to cleanse Libya “house by house” constitutes a shocking throwback to the French Revolution. He should quit power before the revolt spreads like wild fire and to civil war.
