The recent elections in Zimbabwe were as predictable as night follows day. If truth be told, we doubt whether the rest of the world cares two hoots about what happens there.
President Robert Mugabe probably knows this all too well. In addition, he has the full support of President Jacob Zuma and his African National Congress administration in neighbouring South Africa.
The problem is that we believe that President Mugabe, whatever his failings, has considerable support because of his anti-colonial struggles and had Zimbabwe enjoyed a truly free and fair election his Zanu-PF Party might well have won.
The opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and its leader and former Prime Minister, Morgan Tsvangirai, were under no illusion that they had a mountain to climb. As early election results began to come in he declared the election “a huge farce”.
It must be said that despite chronic economic problems and the restriction of basic freedoms in Zimbabwe, the Zanu-PF Party still enjoys wide support, and a fractured opposition has struggled to make its case. However, President Mugabe and his party were never going to take any chances.
Last month’s flash poll was called in haste, rammed through by a compromised court and conducted under structurally unfair conditions. The election was designed with one objective in mind: to secure Zanu-PF’s grip on power while assuming the appearance of legitimacy.
Much was made by election observers about the absence of violence. On the face of it, they are right. Although there were reports of more subtle intimidation – particularly in rural areas – this was not 2008. To focus on the lack of bloodshed, however, is to miss the point.
Mugabe and his Zanu-PF Party were aware that violence would not serve their ultimate cause nearly as well as a more subtle fraud. Their strategy was to give opposition parties an electoral mountain to climb by controlling the media, by manipulating the voters’ list and the partisan security forces.
At the same time, the United Nations and other major powers had their hands full with the humanitarian and security crises in Syria and the Middle East and could not bother to be distracted. The erstwhile African Union (AU) had already signalled a “hands-off” approach.
The sight of peaceful queues and high turnout was then sold around the world, while eliminating any doubts about the final outcome. With a premature endorsement by the AU observer mission, and Zanu-PF officials crowing about a landslide, the success of the approach was obvious.
The MDC and other opposition parties must take some of the responsibility for participating in a process they knew was doomed from the outset. Zimbabwe deserves better than another five years silhouetted between democracy and dictatorship.
Despite the results, all indications are that the election was compromised. The real tragedy is that even if the election were stolen, either subtly or outright, there is a real risk that it will pass without any effective international response.
