KINGSTON, Jamaica, CMC – The main opposition People’s National Party (PNP) is enjoying a slight lead in the run-up to the December 29 general elections, according to the latest opinion poll published here on Friday.
The Jamaica Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll has found that the PNP enjoys a 38 per cent approval rating as compared with 36 per cent for the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
The poll was conducted in 84 communities across the island with a sample size of 1,008 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four per cent.
According to the poll, while the two parties remain in a statistical dead heat, the PNP seems to have snatched the momentum from the JLP over the past few days with the opposition party gaining six percentage points in the past week while the JLP has not moved slightly.
“The JLP came to a screeching halt just over one week ago probably because of issues such as the Government’s handling of the United States spy plane revelations and other issues while the PNP seems to have received a boost by its pointing out the inaccuracies of some of the JLP’s claims,” the pollster said.
“But it is still anybody’s game because a two percentage point lead is not significant and what we are seeing is fluidity. The person who said ‘probably PNP’ one week earlier might now be saying ‘probably JLP’ or ‘undecided’,” added Johnson.
Johnson noted that the latest poll was done after the second of three national debates and would not show what, if any, impact the debate between Prime Minister Andrew Holness and his main challenger Portia Simpson Miller would have on voters.
“These voting intentions are not locked in concrete and the leadership debate could have an impact but the whole thing is very fluid,” Johnson said.
He noted that the persons who said they would definitely vote PNP increased from 29 per cent to 35 per cent in one week while those who said they would probably vote PNP remained at three per cent.
For the JLP, those who said they would definitely vote in favour of the ruling party moved marginally from 31 to 32 per cent while the voters who said probably, dropped from five to four per cent.
However the main reasons why persons would vote the way they indicated, for the most part, remained almost unchanged.
For the JLP, 34 per cent of the persons who say they will vote for the party say they are “diehard Labourites”; 15 per cent said it is better than the PNP; while 12 per cent said Holness deserves a chance. But that is down from 19 per cent one week earlier.
On the PNP side, 31 per cent who said they would vote for the party claimed that was because they are rock-stone Comrades, down from 36 per cent one week earlier.
Eighteen per cent said the party is better than the JLP and 13 per cent said the PNP would do a better job of running the country, according to the polls published in the Gleaner.
Both the JLP and the PNP have each nominated 63 candidates to contest the polls, while the National Democratic Movement (NDM) which was founded by the former JLP leader and prime minister Bruce Golding in 1995, has formed an alliance with the Marcus Garvey People’s Progressive Party (MGPPP) in nominating 17 candidates. The Jamaica Alliance Movement (JAM) has nominated Ras Astor Black as its sole candidate.
There are also six independents that will face the electorate to fill the 63 seats in the Parliament.