THE RECENT RELEASE of the CADRES Grenada political opinion poll which put the governing New Nation Party (NNP) well ahead of the Opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) and projected a swing of four per cent in favour of the NNP should not have been surprising when one considers the recent electoral history of Grenada. The NDC has now been in this peculiar position twice in fifteen years, first in 1999 and again in 2013 under different leaders. Instances in which a major party fails to secure a single seat are rare in the Caribbean; however, it happened in 1999 when George Brizan led the NDC to such a humiliating electoral position against Dr Keith Mitchell and a second time in 2013 when Tillman Thomas suffered a similar fate.
The comparison of these two events is interesting since this 15-love scenario occurred in both directions with the more recent being the more predictable. The 2013 outcome was related to a change of government associated with an electoral swing of ten per cent that came after the 2008 NDC government virtually collapsed. The 1999 scenario was, however, very different since the NNP and Mitchell were in office since 1995 and the historic 30 per cent swing reflected a massive swing against the opposition which is quite rare in politics.
This of course speaks volumes about the political legacy of Mitchell, who is easily this region’s most successful leader electorally; however, it also speaks volumes about the NDC, which appears to have been a political basket case for the entire period of its existence. In this regard, the most recent CADRES poll suggests that if the elections were called during January of 2017, the NNP could easily have emerged with all 15 seats (again) and with an increased popular majority. Mercifully, the election is not due for another 11 months and the fact that it has not yet been called is an obvious political concession on the part of Mitchell to his political adversaries, who seem not to be able to “get it right”.
The NDC’s focus is therefore now on Burke to see if he will suffer the same fate as his predecessors Brizan and Thomas. This seems entirely possible since Burke is a known quantity and, like both Thomas and Brizan, he has struggled electorally in the past. His political history and indeed his political baggage dates back to the days of the Grenada Revolution in 1979 and counter coup in 1983. More recently he was projected as the “heir apparent” within the ill-fated 2008 NDC administration and was entrusted with the important exchequer and acted as Prime Minister anytime Thomas was away. The failure of the Grenadian economy under his watch is as much a fact as the failure of the Barbadian economy under Christopher Snicker’s and it is difficult to imagine the populace of either nation reposing confidence in these individuals to lead any time soon.
It is therefore clear that leadership selection in the NDC leaves much to de desired. However, one high point has been its leaders’ willingness to step down after severe defeats. Such was the case of Brizan and Thomas, who suffered crushing defeats and handed over leadership soon thereafter. One wonders, however, if the NDC could not have been more prudent in its selection of leaders and chosen people who are more popular nationally instead of people who were more popular with the inner circle.
Thomas is one such case in point as he, too, was well known to Grenadians before he won the 2008 election and was understood to be more a compromise between two more obvious leaders than an outstanding leadership choice in and of himself. He therefore emerged and succeeded in an election that was more about people wanting a change than any deliberate expression of confidence in him.
Subsequent to Thomas’ election, the anticipated fracture in the NDC materialised and an NDC commissioned CADRES poll in 2011 suggested that a shift in leadership towards Senator Peter David might positively impact on the NDC’s fortunes. Unsurprisingly, the NDC responded by promptly expelling David from the party. The embarrassing defeat of 2013 was therefore unsurprising and cleared the way for Burke to ascend to the leadership of the NDC. However, he does not appear to be as fortunate as Thomas was in that the Grenadian electorate is not yet tired of a clearly refreshed Mitchell, who is almost certain to be re-elected whenever he calls the election. One hopes this next defeat will prompt the NDC to seriously reflect on the issue of leadership and the numerous mistakes it has made in the past.
Peter W. Wickham is a political consultant and a director of Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES). Email: peter.w.wickham@gmail.com.