IN THE RUN-UP to the referendum, we published our own research on what leaving the European Union (EU) would mean for the travel industry and also for the travelling public.
The view was that there was a lot more to lose than to gain from leaving the EU. When we put the report together, my own view was that I hoped we would never have to use it. We are now in a position of being able to go back to our own report and find out exactly what we have got to do.
The most immediate impact will be the impact on the pound.
Consumers understand that, it’s very immediate.
You know if you are spending more for your glass of beer or your cup of coffee or your hotel bill, you don’t have to be a sophisticated economist to understand that.
We did predict that a leave vote would have, in initial terms, a damaging effect on the pound, and that’s exactly what we have seen.
So that has a big impact in the short term, not just because of the financial cost but just consumer uncertainty.
And certainly what we saw here in the immediate aftermath of the referendum is there was a slowdown in bookings for this summer.
Naturally, people don’t like uncertainty and in that situation consumer spending is always kind of slowed down. And we will see what happens to the pound but that is certainly a short-term impact.
This could be a prolonged period of stalemate, uncertainty, whatever you want to call it. So I think it’s going to be a quite an extended period of fluctuation and uncertainty.
This isn’t just about the UK. I have spent a lot of time in Brussels over the last few years and in the run-up to the referendum and the EU itself has got its own stresses and strains.
There are some big questions being asked generally at the moment about the EU in terms of migration and people and so forth and, of course, the Greek bailout is likely to come back to the table.
I think it’s very important that not just the Caribbean but other countries don’t remain solely focused on what’s happening in the UK, but have dialogue with other EU people, with EU countries and with the institutions in Brussels themselves, to understand what may be changing irrespective of the United Kingdom position within the EU.
There are choppy waters out there and the currency volatility adds to that.
That said, certainly from our members point of view, I don’t think there should be any panic.
And also certainly up until the referendum, in spite of all of the geopolitics, the market in the UK was up five per cent in volume and value.
So the underlying demand is still there, people still want their holidays and I think even through this uncertainty what this has demonstrated is that people’s love for travel is very high on their list of disposable income spend.
They will put off other capital purchases, a new car, a new couch, a new bed, but they want their annual holiday.
So I think although we are not complacent, I think that we are at least lucky that we have got a product where the underlying demand is still very robust.
• Mark Tanzer is chief executive officer of the Association of British Travel Agents.