AS THE CARIBBEAN prepares for yet another general election, with the people of Trinidad and Tobago poised to go the polls on September 7, it deserves noting that since the year 2000, the most significant electoral feature of the English-speaking Caribbean has been the rejection of incumbent governments.
Relatedly, where ruling administrations have avoided defeat, they have done so with very narrow majorities.
A close look at Caribbean elections since 2000 confirms these anti-incumbency tendencies.
In St Lucia the United Workers’ Party lost to the St Lucia Labour Party in 2001, won in 2006 and lost in 2011. In Jamaica, the Jamaica Labour Party lost to the Peoples National Party in 2002, won in 2007 and lost in 2011. In Grenada, the National Democratic Congress lost to the New National Party in 2003, won in 2008 and lost in 2013. In The Bahamas, the Free National Movement lost to the Progressive Liberal Party in 2002, won in 2007 and lost in 2012.
Essentially, while these governments were elected on the expectation of positive change, the territorial electorates, after one term, rethought their decisions and voted them out.
This anti-incumbent intent is not only seen in one-term governments, but is also evident in the narrow majorities. The parties which fall in this category include: the Peoples Progressive Party/Civic of Guyana in 2011, the United Democratic Party of Belize in 2012, the United Peoples Party of Antigua and Barbuda in 2009, the Unity Labour Party of St Vincent and the Grenadines in 2010, and the Democratic Labour party of Barbados in 2013.
Whilst in these countries the governments can claim electoral victories, their significantly reduced majorities should not be read as anything other than intent at rejection. Significantly, Antigua and Guyana, which had avoided defeats, have since joined the anti-incumbency trend with defeats in the 2014 and 2015 elections, respectively. It is left to be seen whether St Vincent and the Grenadines too will have a similar experience, and whether Trinidad and Tobago will produce another one-term government.
With the defeat of the St Kitts Nevis Labour Party in 2015, only Dominica is left as an English-speaking Caribbean country in which the voter has not revolted against an incumbent government since 2000.
This clear tendency towards the rejection of incumbents since 2000, and certainly since the financial crisis of 2008, suggests strongly that the policy responses by Caribbean governments to more difficult economic circumstances are not receiving public endorsement. Caribbean governments, however, appear intellectually bankrupt, and despite public rejection, pursue a forced commitment to neo-liberalism and the abandonment of the social democracy demanded by the people.
Whilst opportunistic politicians may bask in the electoral musical chairs, the absence of stable development options and the loss of public consensus should cause concern.
Trinidad’s election may provide hints at future directions.
• Tennyson Joseph is a political scientist at the University of the West Indies Cave Hill Campus, specialising in regional affairs. Email [email protected].
