CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS with more and more people streaming into the new residential developments in the rural parish of St Philip may well mean the creation of an additional constituency there in time for the next general election constitutionally due in about 18 months.
Word on the ground is that the Electoral and Boundaries Commission (EBC), the body charged with reviewing the number and boundaries of the constituencies into which Barbados is divided, is quietly making preparations to add a fourth seat in St Philip which is reported to be bursting at the seams with an influx of potential voters.
At the last general election in January 2008, Barbados was divided into 30 constituencies, of which three – St Philip North, St Philip South and St Philip West – were in this south-eastern parish.
The last named was added following a recommendation by the EBC in its fourth report on March 28, 2002, along with the creation of St James Central.
The EBC, by the way, is required under the Constitution to submit reports to the minister responsible for elections, not less than two or more than five years from the date of the submission of its last report – which in this case was May 2006 – so a sixth report is now due.
In that report, the EBC noted that the rules set out in the Third Schedule to the Constitution had been amended to include a provision that the electorate in any constituency shall, so far as practicable, not exceed 115 per cent nor be less than 85 per cent of the total electorate divided by the number of constituencies.
What led to the addition of those two constituencies was that under the 110/90 per cent formula then in use, St James South with 10 273 voters and St Philip South with 10 262 voters were above the range set out for the maximum number of electors: 8 441.
The formula allowed for a minimum of 6 906 and an average number of 7 674.
With the addition of these two seats, the ranges changed to a maximum of 8 237 voters, an average number of 7 162 and a minimum of 6 088.
For the January 2008 poll, St Philip South again came up above the maximum with 9 579 registered voters – well beyond the stipulated figure, and a clear indication of the burgeoning electoral list for the constituency, making it ripe for some alterations.
The ruling Democratic Labour Party (DLP) made a clean sweep of the three St Philip seats in 2008, with Michael Lashley getting 3 720 votes to 1 756 for George Griffith of the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) in the north;
Adriel Brathwaite got 3 175 to Anthony Wood’s 2 890, with the Independent Douglas Trotman getting 80, in the south; and Dr David Estwick got 3 166 to Lynette Eastmond’s 2 294 in the newly-created west riding.
The law, therefore, may be dictating the need for an additional constituency based on the numbers, but it may also be fortuitous for the DLP that it happens to be in St Philip, a known comfort zone of the party.
In light of the most recent unpublished survey of marginal seats in which the results all reportedly suggested defeat for the DLP, the possibility of an additional seat in St Philip may be more than welcome news for the Dems.
Uncertainty
As it stands, of the three seats, the margins of victory as shown above were huge in the north, convincing in the west and unconvincing in the south. Accordingly, based on post-election polling and the likelihood of the return of Wood, the St Philip South seat is within a corridor of uncertainty.
An additional seat in St Philip, depending on where it is located, is critical.
According to a well-placed source, there is more political capital to be gained by the ruling party if the adjustment occurs in the north and includes part of neighbouring St John.
In this way, the traditional support of the DLP is consolidated in the south-eastern corridor of the island.
The other parts of St Philip reflect the presence of more immigrants over the last two decades and seem more inclined to change, especially the south.
As yet, St Philip is not as politically fluid as Christ Church, which has the second largest population after St Michael with five constituencies. In a sense, like St George with only two constituencies, Christ Church is a barometer for electoral change.
In essence, St Philip is not yet as cosmopolitan, in a parochial sense, as Christ Church.
In the circumstances, it is certainly in the interest of the DLP to mix the St John vote with that of St Philip North in a way that could try to offset the influence of the immigrant vote in the south, in particular, for the next election as well as into the future.
It must be remembered that St Philip is the largest parish and still has tremendous potential for growth which would come predominantly from inward migration.
The parish’s political influence in the future must therefore not be underestimated.
Of the 11 seats not in St Michael, Christ Church and St James, the DLP holds six of which three are in St Philip.
If St Philip is beginning to reflect the political complexion of Christ Church, slowly but surely, then the BLP is holding five of the eight still rural constituencies in Barbados.
It may be argued that St Thomas and St George already exhibit both urban and rural characteristics.
The political experience of the former has been purely BLP, while the latter is perhaps closest in nature to what St Philip is currently experiencing.
In the fullness of time, the volatility of the St Michael vote is still going to be the cog around which the election outcome spins, followed by the less volatile and more reflective vote of Christ Church.
While constituency boundaries are merely imaginary lines, there is nothing imaginary about the social stratification of the country.
In large measure, no matter the location, particular groups are categorized according to income and/or other indicators of status and therefore the volatility of the vote is largely a reflection of their circumstances – imagined or real.
Whatever the factors that may influence an additional constituency in St Philip, the reality is that the difference between 30 seats and 31 seats is that there can be no tie in a general election in Barbados as we have seen elsewhere in the Caribbean.
Perhaps this is still the most significant issue surrounding the possibility of four rather than three St Philip constituencies in the next general election.               Â
• Albert Brandford is an independent political correspondent. Email: [email protected]
