In my article St Lucia looms (November 15), I argued that since “the beginning of the cycle of the ‘time for change’ elections in the Caribbean between 2006 and 2008 can be traced to the St Lucia election of December 2006”, then the 2011 election “may mark a new cycle” and its results “will provide useful hints of the Caribbean’s political future”.
The election is over, and the St Lucia Labour Party has emerged victorious with an 11-6 majority. Insofar as the lessons are concerned, the most important consideration must be the reality of the continued splitting of the country straight down the middle. Whilst in the last election the two parties were separated by roughly 2000 votes, in 2011 a difference of 3000 votes separated the winners from the losers. In addition, in many of the constituencies, the SLP won by very narrow leads, with margins of two and seven votes being the most dramatic cases.
What this means for the many Caribbean countries which have themselves experienced close elections in recent times, is that despite the global crisis, and despite the limited successes of many a ruling administration, the coming round of elections will be close political battles. The era of the mass landslides may be a while in returning. St Vincent, and now St Lucia and Guyana, have shown that our elections can move in any direction, determined only by the superior mobilization of the various parties on election day.
For opposition parties this should present exciting possibilities, while for ruling administrations it should evoke grave concern. Gone are all guarantees of fixed terms, fixed bases, and fixed tactical methods of winning elections.
One lesson from St Lucia was that despite the superior spending capacity of the governing party, its record of governance failures proved too overwhelming to blind voters to the lure of short-term money.
A similar tendency was seen in Guyana when a cash-strapped opposition presented a formidable challenge to a big-spending PPP-Civic. In coming elections the current ruling regimes will have to think hard about the glitzy, concert-filled, party-like presidential campaigns, sans issues, that have marked recent elections.
Further, the closeness of elections may mean that individual candidates may have to dig deeper in establishing democratic links with their constituents.
In a context of reduced delivery capacity by the state, candidates will have to step up to fill the breach, placing tremendous pressure on incumbents.
Perhaps, too, the ‘time for change’ is being rethought, and St Lucia simply returned to Anthony, as a correction to the 2006 decision, post-Compton.
The most enduring lesson, however, is the deep political divisions which continue to endure. Particularly in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States, voters remain wedded to political camps. Anthony’s most urgent challenge will be to unite St Lucia.
Other leaders await their verdicts.