The world’s major powers agreed last Saturday that a transitional government should be set up in Syria to end the bloodshed but left open the question of what part Syrian President Bashar Al Assad might play.
The tentative agreement hammered out in Geneva by the action group for Syria might appear to have satisfied Russia, but in the absence of any commitment on its part to exclude Assad and those close to his regime, it is likely to remain a dud deal.
The Geneva talks had been billed as a last-ditch effort to halt the worsening violence but hit obstacles as Russia, Assad’s most powerful ally, opposed Western and Arab insistence that he must quit.
The final communique said the transitional government “could include members of the present government and the opposition and other groups and shall be formed on the basis of mutual consent”.
But in a victory for Russian diplomacy, it omitted language contained in a previous draft which explicitly said it “would exclude from government those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation”.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said he was “delighted” with the result as it meant no foreign solution was being imposed on Syria. But United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said it sent a clear message to Assad that he must step down.
“Assad will still have to go,” Clinton told a news conference after the meeting ended. “What we have done here is to strip away the fiction that he and those with blood on their hands can stay in power.”
So it is clear there is no mutual agreement here. And not only has the Assad regime stepped up its rampage to crush any form of domestic dissent, he is also challenging any semblance of international interference in Syria.
British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Assad and his close associates could not lead any transition. He called for the United Nations (UN) Security Council to start drafting a resolution next week setting out sanctions against Syria, a move that would put him at odds with Russia.
The Geneva meeting was called to salvage a peace plan that has largely been ignored by the Assad government. The plan for a negotiated solution to the 16-month-old conflict is the only one on the table and its failure would doom Syria to even more violence.
Assad is definitely counting on his three allies – China, Russia and Iran – for continued support, but deep down he must know that his luck is running out. China and Russia, driven by their strategic interests, are vehemently against a Security Council-backed offensive.
It remains to be seen how a war-fatigued Western alliance, battling an economic crisis in Europe and other parts of the world, will ensure the end of the Assad regime, without risking yet another conflagration in a volatile region.
