RUMBLINGS in Christ Church West seem to be merely a political party washing dirty linen in public.
And if that is more associated with the Dems than the BLP, the temptation is to look for the salacious – differences in the contending personalities.
But there is a much bigger issue which is the nature of the constituency within the wider politics.
In its biggest defeat in 1986, the BLP retained three seats: St Peter, St Thomas and ‘west’. When the DLP suffered a similar fate in 1999, it retained two: St John and St Lucy. These five may therefore be regarded as strongholds.
Owen Arthur still holds St Peter as an Independent, having won it last time as BLP leader. Denis Kellman is now the longest serving member on the DLP side, as MP for St Lucy since 1994.
Three women hold the others, two for the BLP and Mara Thompson in St John. Cynthia Forde is considered an old-school grass roots politician prepared to fight in and outside of Parliament for the constituents of St Thomas.
Dr Maria Agard is seen in direct contrast as the more academic and urbane representative of ‘west’. She shares a lack of the old-school politician with Mara.
What distinguishes ‘west’ from the other four constituencies in Christ Church is that it is not rural. Of equal importance, it was held by a BLP heavy-roller, Sir Henry Forde, prior to Dr William Duguid.
The significance of ‘west’ has much to do with it being the strongest BLP seat in a parish second only to St Michael in importance for the two parties. That’s why Arthur tried to install Kerrie Symmonds when Sir Henry retired, causing some fallout.
Charges were levelled that Arthur had become an iron-fisted ruler, notwithstanding that he failed.
The failure handed Arthur his greatest public humiliation matched perhaps only by the election defeats of 2008 and 2013.
The temptation is therefore to see this 2015 episode as a potential source of humiliation for Mia Mottley. The circumstances appear similar but are different.
Agard is now having difficulty with her third executive. It’s known that as early as 2012, Arthur went to Bonnetts Resource Centre to ask her to “make peace” prior to the general election.
Notwithstanding the closeness of the 2013 results and fact that there was a swing to the Bees, ’west’ was the only Christ Church seat won by the BLP and with a reduced majority. In the immediate aftermath, there were rumours – never denied – that Agard had health problems.
The nature of the game would cause anyone with an interest in elective politics, and more so a desire to contest a Christ Church seat, to pounce on the opportunity. It is called self-interest. This raises the bigger interest of that of the party.
Given the importance of strongholds, the leadership must pay more attention to a succession plan when vacancies arise in constituencies. Each is different but some are more different especially when it comes to strongholds. The successor ought to be a person not only with the potential to win the seat, which is not that significant if it is a stronghold, but with the potential to help the party at the parochial and national levels.
It’s undeniable there’s a dearth of leadership material in both political parties. In the 1970s and 1980s, there were several politicians on both sides who were highly regarded as potential leaders. The same cannot be said of today’s Parliament. Since independence, and taking death out of the equation, the majority of the prime ministers have come out of strongholds.
Political scientists posit the view that it is best if the leader has a stronghold. The second option for a stronghold is a senior member of the party who is able to help others in their constituencies. It is therefore not surprising that rumours abound that a senior member of the BLP has his eyes on ‘west’.
The question is will self-interest or party-interest prevail?
As is always the case, the confluence of events ultimately runs to the leadership. This presents a special case for Mia Mottley, who has to influence the process one way or the other.
Is it enough to tolerate an allegedly uncooperative incumbent in a stronghold or look at the wider picture of Christ Church in the context of its political importance?
The test is much greater than those presented by the events in the past when taken outside of the realm of the salacious into the politics of politics.
Albert Brandford is an independent political correspondent. Email albertbrandford@nationnews.com