How worried should Barbados be about climate change?
Adapting to the effects of global climate change is an existential imperative for the Caribbean. However, the most immediate economic effects to these countries will likely arise not from climate change itself but from any measures put in place to mitigate it.
Carbon taxes, shifting travel patterns, and the cost of coast maintenance will all be more damaging to the Caribbean economy and trade over the next 20 years than rising oceans will be. But the alternative could be ruinous. If no precautions are taken and the sea rises more than one metre, several governments in the Caribbean would be severely taxed, possibly to the point of collapse. The remaining islands will have had their meagre agriculture capability further depleted, their tourism industry severely diminished, and there will not be enough jobs to support a sizeable population. In short, the Caribbean will be shrank drastically.
However, if ocean levels rise less than a metre, while there would still be a sizeable disruption of the market, the majority of Caribbean nations would continue the same as today. Carbon taxes or anything that causes a long term rise in the cost of fuel or transportation would distress the Caribbean economy. The Caribbean tourism sector relies upon visitors coming from Canada, the United States, Brazil, Europe, even as far off as China and Japan. Which means the Caribbean tourism industry is incredibly dependent upon long haul air travel. Unfortunately, this is one of the most polluting means of travel at our disposal.
Air transport alone contributes roughly 40 per cent of tourism’s total carbon dioxide emissions. These types of emissions will have to be curbed, likely through taxes. Any measure that makes flying more expensive or dissuades people from travelling will have deleterious effects on the Caribbean economy. According to the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, by 2020 if moderate climate policies were enacted the Caribbean region could lose 1.3 to 4.3 per cent of its annual tourists due to the increased price of travelling. If “serious” policies were adopted a 24 per cent drop in tourists is possible.
However, while transportation may have the most immediate effect on tourism, it is unlikely to be the harshest. Technological advances such as more fuel efficient jet engines, electric planes, and altered travel patterns can mitigate the effect of higher prices. There is no such technological fix for a flooded beach or degraded landscape.
The Caribbean has already taken several steps to alleviate the effects of climate change. CARICOM has set up the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre to study the effects of and advise national governments about climate change. Unfortunately for most Caribbean islands, their fate is outside their hands. Even if, somehow, all Caribbean nations were to become carbon neutral overnight, they would hardly make a dent in the global carbon production. This means that the best course of action for the Caribbean will be to prepare for the oncoming deluge. This preparation will be extremely expensive.
Adaptation to these effects will be crucial if countries wish to avoid debilitating economic developments in the future. Failure to put in place these costly precautions would allow the economies to grow unimpeded for some time, but decreases the prospects for sustained tourism in the medium term and opens the window for greater economic challenges in the long term.