Caribbean governments, businesses, farmers and other stakeholders are being urged to prepare themselves for potentially severe climate extremes as a developing El Niño is expected to bring hotter and drier conditions across the region in 2026 and 2027.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterised by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years.
It represents the “warm phase” of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle, causing weakened easterly trade winds that allow warm water to shift eastward, disrupting global weather patterns and causing significant environmental impacts.
Warning
Climatologist at the Barbados-based Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck, is warning that this El Niño event is likely to bring periods of reduced rainfall and increased humid heat, which can affect water availability and agriculture, and increase the likelihood of heat stress and dry conditions.
The CIMH said that without adequate planning, the socioeconomic impacts from cascading and compounding hazards will be significant. Historically, El Niño is linked to severe droughts – such as those in 2009-2010 and 2014-2016 – and also increases the risk of extreme heat, wildfires, and marine heatwaves that can trigger coral bleaching.
Similar combined impacts were also observed during the record heat years of 2010, 2023, and 2024.
Areas already experiencing drought, particularly in the Eastern Caribbean, may see slower recovery of water resources during the upcoming wet season, which could begin as early as May 2026.
Although El Niño is typically associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons, Van Meerbeeck stressed that risk remains, as a single hurricane or intense rainfall event can cause significant damage, as demonstrated by Hurricane Andrew in the Bahamas in 1992 and Tropical Storm Erika in Dominica in 2015.
Co-director of the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona, Professor Michael Taylor, said: “What we are seeing in the forecasts is the emergence of a potential multi-hazard regime – where heat, drought, and marine impacts can occur together and reinforce each other”. (CMC)
