JUST AFTER posting a commanding triumph on board the brilliant Just A Fashion, jockey Jalon Samuel said matter-of-factly history is made to be created.
He was referring to the widely held belief that the horse winning the Coolmore Home Stakes and Trophy hardly ever wins the prestigious Sandy Lane Gold Cup.
He obviously believes that Just A Fashion can become only the third exception to that rule or myth depending on who you talk to.
Truth is, the majority of the pundits are correct and the statistics back them up.
The two exceptions came from the Hopefield stables of Sir David Seale. Crowd pleaser Bentom did it in 1986 and Blast Of Storm in 2001 when the race was called the Cave Shepherd 5000.
I think the last overwhelming favourite which failed to deliver the Gold Cup to its connections after taking the Coolmore was Apostle in 2009 when the gelding failed to leave the gates for the first time in his career. It played out like an Alfred Hitchcock mystery.
Coming out of the subsequent investigation/inquiry, a groom was severely reprimanded and a huge sum was offered for information on the matter.
Even if he was less favoured, last year’s Coolmore winner Jakesam failed to repeat that form in the Gold Cup but some maintained the soft going in the trial contributed to his success so they weren’t surprised by his showing in the more prestigious race.
In short, the superstitious in local racing circles, the majority of them very knowledgeable, really think that the Coolmore is a jinx race. Win it at your peril; you will pay the price in the ultimate challenge.
They also reinforced their premise by stating that back in the day, horses had only two weeks between the dress rehearsal and the big show and even with five weeks now it is still hard to repeat. Checkmate!
So it was against this background that railbirds were applying this theory to Just A Fashion and the precise reason why Samuel believes otherwise.
On Saturday’s showing, you shouldn’t take anything away from the horse, the jockey or trainer Richard Deane. People can speculate about the future based on any amount of factors but nobody can dispute the “now” result.
Just A Fashion roughed up the field and handed out a caning with a pillar to post victory. This is the empirical evidence in the court of racing facts that count and not opinion. Samuel, with the outside draw of ten, was still able to break on top. He had the luxury of rating him with ease because none of the others could “go” with him in the early fractions.
When asked for a final effort with two furlongs out, he responded accordingly and even though the dangerous Sirius Black asked him a question in the homestretch, Just A Fashion held his form and rushed to the winner’s circle. Samuel also confided afterwards that he always “had a lot of horse” under his command.
In essence, he was saying that Just A Fashion could still do better despite posting a blistering 1:49.3 for the nine-furlong trip and in light of the fact that he was hardly pressured at any stage of the Coolmore.
Let’s face it; in a Gold Cup setting where it is every man for himself and the devil take the hindmost, some may argue that the animal which has won ten of his 13 starts won’t be allowed the kind of concessions available last Saturday.
We still have to judge Just A Fashion on its own merits and at this juncture there isn’t much you can say against him. I think he answered the question about whether he can stay the trip affirmatively. On his first time of asking at the distance he fell short and some suggest this only happened “because he was sick”.
Another big plus is that he has an outstanding reinsman on his back and I think most people would credit Samuel as someone who’s an excellent judge of pace and of course he has already won a Gold Cup. In addition, Deane thinks he’s the best horse he has trained, surpassing the very classy Peace Envoy. He has a master plan in place.
The question of conditioning also came into the post-race debate and some were wondering if Just A Fashion and second-placed Sirius Black can hold their condition for the Gold Cup. One man was bold enough to say that both horses ran their Sandy Lane race on Saturday and won’t place on March 7. We will see if he’s right.
Of course, the unknown factor at this point is what American Ken Ramsey will nominate for the big event. After all, he won last year with Major Marvel and was also voted his country’s leading breeder and owner after much success in 2014.
The inference is that he has a wide array of options and, given his local knowledge of the track gained from last year, he knows exactly which horses will be suitable for the sharp turns at the Garrison.
Yet again, this is mere speculation at the moment and unless someone has a crystal ball nobody is certain which horse will win irrespective of breeding, pedigree and track record. The element of surprise can crash the big party as the French-bred, Martinique-owned Iron Lover did in 1984.
For now, I’m sticking with the Samuel observation that history can be created.
And Just A Fashion has the qualities that can make him the third Coolmore winner to take the Gold Cup too.
• Andi Thornhill is an experienced, award-winning sports journalist. Email:[email protected].
