BARBADOS AND MOST other countries of the English-speaking Caribbean remain aghast at the outcome of last Thursday’s referendum in Britain on its relationship with the European Union (EU).
That the Leave campaigners impressed voters sufficiently to support their Brexit plan was more than surprising, but seven days later the unravelling uncertainties are not only impacting the United Kingdom but far-flung nations, including its former colonies in the Caribbean.
There are no measurements on the immediate and direct impact on CARICOM members, but undoubtedly there will be some negative fallout. Consider no preferential and formal trade arrangements between Britain and the Caribbean once the former is out of the EU while developmental aid will be impacted. This is why we need to have clarity on the way forward with the Economic Partnership Agreement and whether this arrangement will remain intact.
While Minister of Tourism Richard Sealy is understandably upbeat that tourism from our main market, Britain, should not be negatively impacted, much will depend on the stability of the pound sterling.
Volatility in the financial market could create many uncertainties. It could push up the cost of vacationing in Barbados, hurt thousands of people across the Caribbean who receive pensions from Britain and even hit remittances.
These issues indicate why the Brexit vote must attract the attention of CARICOM Heads of Government at their annual conference being held in Guyana July 4 to 6. Even before these concerns prompted by last Thursday’s decision arose, regional leaders had the major challenge of dealing with the banking de-risking crisis and deciding exactly how to move forward with their own CARICOM Single Market and Economy.
This combination of problems must create some anxiety in regional leaders. Caribbean political leaders must not dupe themselves or their citizens into thinking that time is on our side. The de-risking issue is current, while Britain’s break from the EU may be sooner rather than later.
This is not a time to operate on “island time”, believing that historic and cultural ties will give us any favoured status with the former motherland. We are simply too small and relatively insignificant.
Even though there was ample time for the various regional governments to have looked at the pros and cons of the possible outcome of last week’s referendum, it simply did not happen. We were caught napping as a region, both at the level of CARICOM and individually, unprepared for the unexpected. Given the tenuous situation in which all CARICOM countries find themselves, this is not the time for any regional leader to try to be a maverick.
The British vote must not so influence the situation within CARICOM that any member state thinks this is the ideal time to opt out. The concerns are quite different. Rather, we must have a united CARICOM position on how best to exploit future relations with Britain. We stand to lose most if the situation is not properly handled.