The publication of the final results of the 2015 Trinidad and Tobago election by the Electoral and Boundaries Commission (EBC) facilitates the analysis of swing which CADRES has routinely conducted in the wake of Caribbean elections.
This type of analysis is presumably well known to readers and has been useful in the past to highlight important developments regarding the performance of political entities. In this regard, the analysis is immediately useful in clarifying several myths that have been peddled in the wake of the election and moreover it can shed some light on the credence of the People Partnership (PP) claim that they were “well ahead” of the People’s National Movement (PNM) by the time polls would have normally closed at 1800 hrs.
The final EBC data presented on the appended chart demonstrates that Prime Minister Keith Rowley’s PNM received 52 per cent of the vote on this occasion which is a clear majority of valid votes cast. If these data are viewed from the perspective of Trinidad alone and Tobago is isolated, the PNM’s support on the mainland drops to 51 per cent, but is still a clear majority of votes cast and this reality casts a shadow on the comment made by PP Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar on the night of the election.
It is entirely true that her comments might have been made based on preliminary data; however, one assumes that a political leader would make such comments from a position of greater certainty since there is an inherent suggestion that the PP supporters have been “politically wronged”.
The PP does retain the second largest share of votes (47 per cent), while 1 per cent went to the Independent Liberal Party (ILP), independents and other smaller political organisations. It is also important to note the electoral swing of both parties, which is a measure of improvement between elections, and in this regard the PNM recorded an impressive +12 per cent while the PP’s swing was -13 per cent. It is noticeable that the PP lost 1 per cent more support than the PNM gained and this is easily explainable with reference to the ILP’s support which approaches 1 per cent.
Effectively therefore, the PP lost support in large measure directly to the PNM, which converted enough of it to win majority support, while a small quantity rested with the ILP. The PNM is clearly less popular than the PP was in 2010, but it is nonetheless more popular than any other political entity or coalition of entities in Trinidad and Tobago at this time.
At the constituency level, the swing analysis also reveals an interesting mood and here it is important that the PNM’s national performance be compared with its constituency performance. Interestingly, all but five constituencies recorded a positive swing in favour of the PNM ranging from the highest (52 per cent) in St Ann’s East Central, to the lowest (2 per cent) in San Fernando West, while the average swing in the five marginal constituencies was 13 per cent, which is about average. The consistency of this swing lends support to the argument that the PNM’s improvement nationally was associated with a consistent trend and militates against the United National Congress (UNC) recent contention that it was “well ahead” by 1800 hrs on election day.
These observations make it possible to consider Rowley’s victory in the context of previous PNM performances under the leadership of Patrick Manning. It becomes clear that the last time the PNM had more than 50 per cent support nationally was in 2002 and under Manning when it gained 51 per cent of the votes cast, which is still less than Rowley’s 52 per cent. If therefore one looks to the PNM’s last year that was as good as or better than 2015, the year 1981 emerges when the PNM was led by George Chambers and Rowley was not an MP.
It is ironic that Manning’s era are often touted as the PNM’s “good years”. However, it is now clear that he led the PNM from 1991 (the same year Rowley entered Parliament) through five elections before leading a popular government in 2002.
The irony becomes greater when one recalls that the 2002 election followed the 2001 election, which was a tie and was effectively “given” to him by President Robinson.
In terms of electoral swing, the 2015 victory is the single largest improvement in PNM national support since 1991, which was the PNM’s recovery from their 1986 humiliation. Certainly the seat-count of 23-18 appears paltry compared to the type of majority the Antigua Labour Party (ALP) recorded in Antigua recently. However, Rowley’s 56 per cent share of seats in parliament matches the PNM average parliamentary strength.
Moreover, the fact that this parliamentary majority is backed by an impressive level of popular support suggests that the people of Trinidad and Tobago have given Rowley the opportunity to impact on their electoral politics in a way that the PNM has not since the death of Eric Williams.