In January of each year, People And Things takes a look at the likely location of political activity across the region and this year presents us with novel mix of scheduled and unscheduled political activity in four locations.
The case of Barbados seems to be a logical focus, especially as I have already suggested that the collapse of this administration would not be a bad thing for us economically. This is, however, different from a suggestion that the Stuart administration is likely to collapse.
In this environment, political deception that provides a platform for poor governance need not give rise to fresh general elections. In this instance, there is conflict between the exigencies of the prevailing national environment and the realities of the personal situation of a majority of MPs. Simply put, I am not convinced that it will be in the interest of any Democratic Labour Party (DLP) MP to bring down this government until the majority of them are pensionable (in two years’ time).
In the meantime, therefore, our immediate political attention should shift to Antigua and Barbuda, where a general election is due by March 12. However, these elections are complicated by several factors related to the administration of the electoral system. Ironically, the current complexity of the Antiguan electoral scenario is rooted in the 2009 election, which was plagued with problems.
As a result, the government sent the Supervisor of Elections on leave and sought to execute a comprehensive re-registration exercise which has been successfully challenged by the Opposition Antigua Labour Party (ALP).
The ALP claimed (and the court agreed) that the new list (commissioned by the new supervisor) excluded several people who were eligible under the old list. This creates a crisis since the new list cannot be relied upon and the United Progressive Party (UPP) believes that the old list is partial to the ALP. In the meantime, elections are due and must rely on either the previous list or a combination of both since there is too little time for another re-enumeration.
Lists aside, the UPP’s re-election bid is further complicated by the matter of electoral boundaries which they have proposed to radically alter in a way that one presumes would be more favourable.
These changes were initially challenged by the ALP in the courts and an injunction granted prohibiting the use of these new boundaries. The subsequent case was won by the UPP government and the injunction lifted. However, a further injunction has now been instituted which precludes the use of a similar set of boundary proposals, the legality of which now has to be determined.
One presumes that the UPP government has pinned its electoral hopes on the adoption of a voters list that excluded residents who are not citizens and are presumed to be more favourable to the ALP along with the adoption of boundaries that are more promising.
This strategy conspicuously avoids a frontal assault on public opinion and attempts to enhance the UPP’s image in the eyes of the Antigua and Barbudan voting public. In this regard recent public opinion polls there have consistently indicated the presence of a significant swing against the UPP government.
The swing necessary to remove this Antigua government is -2 per cent, which coincidentally is similar to that which was required to remove the DLP in Barbados. This coincidence would suggest the prudence of adopting a similar strategy to that which the DLP adopted here. I am, however, inclined to think that a major difference there would be the fact that the ALP is now under new leadership, which the Barbados Labour Party (BLP) did not benefit from in 2013.
Like Barbados, St Kitts does not have an election due. However, the potential life of the Denzil Douglas administration has been shortened by the defection of two senior MPs to the Opposition benches and a resulting coalition among the three (now four) opposition parties.
This has resulted in a most peculiar situation where the Opposition is numerically superior to the Government (in terms of elected MPs) and the Westminster system presumes that in such circumstances such a government would not survive. In this instance, however, the vote of no confidence which would terminate the life of such a government has been tabled but after more than a year not debated.
In the meantime, the Douglas administration is seemingly going about its business normally and has passed not one, but two budgets. It is peculiar that the Douglas administration has survived this long with a threatening vote of no confidence, but it is highly unlikely St Kitts and Nevis will not have a general election in 2014.
Ironically, the national swing required to dislodge the Douglas administration is significant (-9% on the mainland) but this Federation is politically peculiar and as such a swing of -3% (nationally) would be sufficient to change the government there. Dr Douglas is the longest standing Prime Minister in the Commonwealth (19 years) and it will be interesting to see how he defends his stewardship in the face of unprecedented challenges.
Among the Windward Islands, we should also keep a keen eye on Dominica and St Vincent, which are both currently eligible for “early” elections. In both instances those governments are perceived to be strong. Based on the most recent CADRES polls, it could be argued that in Dominica change is highly unlikely, while in St Vincent change is possible but unlikely.
• Peter W. Wickham is a political consultant and a director of Caribbean Development Research Services (CADRES).