MUCH AS HUMAN BEINGS abhor natural disasters, man-made disasters are the greater evils, as they could cause greater long-term harm. The people of Japan will in time overcome their tragedy and rebuild. They will put their lives back together and in the process will become an even stronger people.
Unfortunately, however, the same cannot be said about the man-made disasters now on the near horizon in the Middle East, Europe and even the United States. An unusual pattern is emerging that could lead to regional and possibly global instability.
Upheavals, revolutions, and wars inevitably disrupt or destroy the normal flows of goods and resources. They block shipping routes and freeze or even gut production facilities. They create a domino-effect of supply shortages around the globe.
The lesson about the current upheavals should be self-evident: the masses, if desperate or determined enough, can ultimately rise up to overthrow almost any regime, anywhere. We need only look at Syria – a virtual police state, Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Libya.
In England, more than 250 000 people poured onto the streets of London last Saturday to protest government cutbacks. They then descended into a “ferocious melee”, as smaller groups of “violent mobs” destroyed shops, attacked banks, and vandalized Trafalgar Square.
No despotic government on Earth – no matter how well financed or heavily armed – can forever avoid its own collapse or overthrow. We saw this with the fall of the Berlin Wall, the demise of the Soviet Union and, earlier in the 20th century, the end of the British Empire.
We’ve seen recent examples not only in the Middle East, but also in Ireland, and, just last week, in Portugal as well. Fortunately, in Western countries, most rebellions are channelled through democratic processes. But to blindly assume our region is somehow invulnerable to political turmoil is to ingeniously ignore history.
Although social movements have ideological or religious overtones, the underlying driver is almost invariably economic. This is especially true of the most recent upheavals in Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa.
People are angry because of persistent poverty.
The revolts on the streets of London, Dublin, Lisbon, and Athens have been a reaction to massive government deficits and cutbacks. They are common symptoms of a deflationary crisis.
In contrast, the revolts in the Middle East have been largely triggered by surges in the cost of living. Among other causes, these are consequences of an inflationary crisis which prolongs the agony, destroys the middle class and leads to far greater political upheaval.
Unfortunately, right now, that’s the path most governments are pursuing.
