ONE OUTSTANDING feature of the politics of 2015 that is likely to shape and determine the politics of 2016 in Barbados is the fact that the long period of “unsettlement”, which had plagued the ruling Democratic Labour Party (DLP) from as early as 2008, has been overcome and the population now appears to have reluctantly settled itself into a resigned accommodation to the DLP Government.
Thus, following an extremely bumpy economic ride in the post-2008 period, shaky moments of internal wrangling arising out of internal opposition to Freundel Stuart’s leadership, as well as continuing tensions over policy with civic groups like trade unions, the country has quietened considerably.
In addition, since the resignation of former Prime Minister Owen Arthur from the Barbados Labour Party (BLP), and continuing evidence of internal resistance to the leadership of Mia Mottley, the focus of political attention has shifted from the DLP’s policy failures to questions over the “readiness” of the BLP for government.
The coming year therefore appears to be one in which the ruling administration may seek to consolidate itself around the new settled context.
February 2016 will mark three years since the election of the DLP and as a milestone, it presents a comfortable period from which the DLP can build into the next election.
With 2016 marking 50 years of Barbados’ Independence, it is likely that re-election objectives will be subtly intermeshed with anniversary celebrations as a build-up to 2017 or 2018.
None of this, however, should be taken to mean that the outcome of any future election is settled. What it means is that the atmosphere of direct challenge and resistance to the DLP that had previously defined its relationship with the public has now ceased.
However, it is often the case that after the hero has slain the dragon, it is the thrashing tail of the dead beast that proves his undoing. The Government cannot dismiss the ongoing concerns about crime, nor can it assume that public quiet and acquiescence over its reversal of Errol Barrow’s social democracy is tantamount to acceptance and agreement.
It may very well be the case that large swathes of a disappointed public, who have lost their accessto social protection and who loudly vocalised their anger in previous years, have turned their anger into patient waiting for the time of inevitability.
The Government, too, would no doubt be aware of growing industrial restiveness, which may burst forth in 2016. It would be well advised, in addition to consolidating the economy, to clarify its practical and ideological stance on Barbadian social democracy.
Unless there is a qualitatively disruptive event at the economic or political level, however, the Barbadian public can expect a year of quiet shadow-boxing leading up to the main event of 2017-2018. Whatever happens in 2017-2018, the seeds will be planted in 2016.
• Tennyson Joseph is a political scientist at the University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, specialising in regional affairs. Email tjoe2008@live.com.
