NOW THAT Barbados Labour Party (BLP) Member of Parliament Dr Maria Agard has been formally expelled from the party, the moment is perhaps opportune for political commentary to move beyond the surface discussions of the propriety or impropriety of her expulsion, and to unearth the forces of real politik behind the entire saga.
Without this, the public will mistake the shadows on the cave wall for the real substance, and will be lured into assuming that the issues have to do with the surface claims that are being made, such as the unfair expulsion of a bullied first-time parliamentarian, the authoritarian tendencies of a young leader, or the inability of a new parliamentarian to respond with political finesse to doubts over her candidature.
What then is the real politik behind the Maria Agard Affair?
The central issues revolve around the post-2008 leadership contestations within the BLP, and more specifically the refusal of a section of the party to accept the leadership of Mia Mottley.
Whilst leadership tussles are a permanent feature of any political organisation, it is normal for subordinate groups to eventually “settle” under the new leadership until future developments, as, for instance, an electoral defeat, open new spaces for renewed leadership challenges. This was seen for example in the post-David Thompson Democratic Labour Party where Prime Minister Freundel Stuart survived an initial test and eventually cemented his leadership following the 2013 election.
It is significant that whenever Owen Arthur was chosen as leader of the BLP the moments of open challenge were muted, while under Mottley her detractors remain consistently vocal in their opposition. The most extreme example of this is Arthur’s own decision to leave the party rather than to be led by Mottley. Another example is Agard herself who, despite her greenness, has never shirked from publicly opposing Mottley. In between are others.
Once seen in this way, the expulsion of Agard can be understood as part of the normal process of a leader seeking to consolidate her leadership in the face of determined opposition.
In this regard too, a critical issue is Arthur’s tactical error in leaving the BLP in 2014 and his abandonment of the leadership after the 2013 election. An important question for the BLP is whether Arthur, having led the party to defeat twice, the second time after re-taking the leadership from Mottley, represents the best future prospect for the BLP. An honest answer to this question may settle the BLP’s leadership question.
Mottley’s challenge, however, resides in the fact that the election is three years away, and the opportunity for obstructionism is at its height, with the present moment representing the last desperate throw of the dice for her determined detractors.
Only time will determine whether the BLP will risk a third defeat for Arthur or will afford Mottley her first electoral opportunity as leader.
• Tennyson Joseph is a political scientist at the University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, specialising in regional affairs. Email [email protected].
